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News from the Votemaster

The next primary is Pennsylvania's on April 22. Here's the scoop. Pennsylvania is allocated 187 delegates, as follows:

   103 pledged district-level delegates elected April 22
   35 At-large pledged delegates
   20 Pledged PLEOS
   29 Superdelegates

The 103 district-level delegates will be elected by congressional district, with a certain number per district. Here is a map of Pennsylvania showing the congressional districts.

PA CDs

Here is a list of the districts, the number of delegates each has, the major cities, the PVI, and the Representative.

CD Males Females Total Location Cities PVI Inc Representative
1 4 3 7 Southeast Philadelphia, Chester D+36 D Bob Brady
2 4 5 9 Southeast Philadelphia, Wyncote D+39 D Chaka Fattah
3 3 2 5 Northwest Erie R+2 R Phil English
4 2 3 5 West New Castle, Beaver Falls R+3 D Jason Altmire
5 2 2 4 North central State college, Franklin R+10 R John Peterson
6 3 3 6 Southeast Pottstown, Coatesville D+2 R Jim Gerlach
7 4 3 7 Southeast King of Prussia, Radnor D+4 D Joe Sestak
8 3 4 7 Southeast Quakertown, Bristol D+3 D Patrick Murphy
9 2 1 3 South central Altoona, Somerset R+15 R Bill Schuster
10 2 2 4 Northeast Williamsport, Sayre R+8 D Chris Carney
11 2 3 5 East central Wilkes-Barre, Bloomsburg D+5 D Paul Kanjorski
12 3 2 5 Southwest Waynesburg, Johnstown D+5 D John Murtha
13 3 4 7 Southeast Lansdale, Willow Grove D+8 D Allyson Schwartz
14 4 3 7 Sputhwest Pittsburgh, McKeesport D+22 D Michael Doyle
15 2 3 5 East central Allentown, Bethlehem D+2 R Charles Dent
16 2 2 4 Southeast Lancaster R+11 R Joseph Pitts
17 2 2 4 Central Harrisburg R+7 D Tim Holden
18 3 2 5 Southwest Bethel Park R+2 R Tim Murphy
19 2 2 4 South central York, Hanover R+12 R Todd Platts

Now let us look at how the delegates might be divided up between Clinton and Obama, as illustrated in the table below. Suppose Clinton gets 55% of the vote, as she did in Ohio. Then she gets 55% of the delegates in each CD. For example, in CD PA-01, which has seven delegates, she is entitled to 3.85 delegates, as shown in column 3 below. However, since Democrats do not slice up delegates, she gets 4 delegates in PA-01 and Obama gets 3, as shown in columns 4 and 5. Now suppose she does really well and clobbers him in PA-01, 60% to 40%. Now she is entitled to 4.2 delegates, but that rounds to the same 4 she got with 55% of the vote. In CD PA-02 same thing happens: she gets 5 delegates with 55% of the vote and also 5 delegates with 60% of the vote. The result of this exercise is that if Clinton gets 55% of the vote in every CD, she wins a net 13 delegates. With 60% she gets a net of 15 delegates. In short, even with a landslide win of 20%, she picks up only 15 district-level delegates.

CD Delegates Clinton 55% Clinton del Obama del Clinton 60% Clinton del Obama del
1 7 3.85 4 3 4.20 4 3
2 9 4.95 5 4 5.40 5 4
3 5 2.75 3 2 3.00 3 2
4 5 2.75 3 2 3.00 3 2
5 4 2.2 2 2 2.40 2 2
6 6 3.3 3 3 3.60 4 2
7 7 3.85 4 3 4.20 4 3
8 7 3.85 4 3 4.20 4 3
9 3 1.65 2 1 1.80 2 1
10 4 2.2 2 2 2.40 2 2
11 5 2.75 3 2 3.00 3 2
12 5 2.75 3 2 3.00 3 2
13 7 3.85 4 3 4.20 4 3
14 7 3.85 4 3 4.20 4 3
15 5 2.75 3 2 3.00 3 2
16 4 2.2 2 2 2.40 2 2
17 4 2.2 2 2 2.40 2 2
18 5 2.75 3 2 3.00 3 2
19 4 2.2 2 2 2.40 2 2
Total 103   58 45   59 44

What about the other delegates? The 35 pledged at-large delegates are chosen by the Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee. They are allocated in proportion to the statewide primary vote. So, for example, if Clinton gets 55% of the vote statewide, she gets 19 at-large delegates vs. Obama's 16, for a net of 3. With 60% of the vote, she gets a net of 7 delegates.

The 20 PLEO slots are reserved for big-city mayors, state legislators, county officials, and so on. However, they have to run for election pledged to a candidate. The Democratic State Committee selects them, with slots allocated to candidates based on the statewide primary results. So, for example, if Clinton gets 55% of the vote statewide, she gets 11 PLEOs to Obama's 9.

Finally, the superdelegates are not elected. These are members of Congress, members of the DNC, Gov. Ed Rendell, etc.

All in all, if Clinton gets 55% of the vote statewide, she might pick up a net of 20 odd delegates. This will not much of a dent in Obama's current lead of 120-140 delegates.

If you have gotten this far, congratulations. You are a real political junkie. For dessert, go read the complete Pennsylvania Delegate Selection Plan



-- The Votemaster
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