Dem
51
GOP
49
Joe Biden is having trouble getting nominees confirmed this year, even though Democrats have an absolute majority in the Senate. The problem is 2024. Some Democrats want to be able to campaign on having opposed him on important matters. His nominations of Gigi Sohn for a seat on the FCC and Phil Washington to lead the FAA didn't make it. Both withdrew when it was clear they wouldn't be confirmed. Sohn is a woman and Washington is Black.
Now Biden has nominated Julie Su to be secretary of labor, to succeed Marty Walsh, who resigned to be the executive director of the NHL players union. Su is a Chinese American. More trouble. There seems to be a pattern here. All 49 Republican senators are committed to voting no and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) doesn't like her much either. All it will take is one more defection and she will have to withdraw or face a humiliating defeat.
All eyes are now on Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). If she is going to run for reelection as an independent, she can't be seen as a rubber stamp for Biden, so she has to start opposing him on high-profile votes—again. This would be a good place to start. Especially since the state is only 3.6% Asian, so she isn't going to run into identity politics issues here the way she would with, say, a Mexican-American nominee.
Biden knew that Manchin and Sinema would be problems, but he felt he had to add an Asian American to his cabinet. Again, that old identity politics thing. But in fairness, they might have opposed anyone he nominated, just to show the voters that they weren't his puppets. In that sense, Su, who is currently deputy secretary, was as safe a pick as anyone else. But she, too, may well bite the dust. (V)