Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaking of Kyrsten Sinema, her chances of being reelected are not great. Her only real chance is if the Republicans nominate a crazy person and non-crazy Republican voters en masse decide that she is a better bet. The Arizona GOP may well be cooperating. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb just announced that he is running for the Republican nomination. Lamb is more of a lion than a lamb. He is an outspoken supporter of Donald Trump and claims that Trump won the 2020 election.
Lamb will try for the Trump lane, but he may have company. Pretend governor Kari Lake is also expected to jump in next to him. Blake Masters, who was crushed by Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) last year, might join them as well. That would be the dream scenario for Sinema: three bats**t-crazy Republicans all trying to out-Trump each other. However, it would also be the dream scenario for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who is so far the only Democrat in the race. After all, if a complete loonie gets the Republican nomination, some Republicans may decide that Sinema isn't their cup of tea either and grudgingly vote for Gallego. Or they might vote strategically, deciding that they have to vote for Gallego to make sure the nutter Republican doesn't win. Arizona doesn't have runoffs, so if enough Republicans bolt, Gallego could end up with the most votes and thus win. On the other hand, Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the Republican gubernatorial primary last year, might also decide to run and have the not-Trump lane all to herself.
Lamb's campaign video talks all about the border—gangs, sex trafficking, and fentanyl smuggling. If that's his thing, why doesn't he just move south a bit and run for sheriff of Pima County, which has a 125-mile-long border with Mexico? Then he could go catch the bad guys himself. (V)