Apr.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Q1 Fundraising: Ten Storylines

The fundraising numbers for Q1 were due a few days back, and so we're getting a picture of how well candidates for various offices are doing. Here's a rundown of some of the more interesting storylines:

1. Indictments Are Good for Business: Donald Trump's fundraising had been pretty tepid, until he got indicted. As a result, he had a robust quarter, bringing in $14.4 million for his campaign and another $4.4 million for his main PAC. That said, keep in mind that it's the true believers who are giving money now, and once they hit the limit, they're done for the cycle, even if 2024 is a different calendar year.
   
   
2. Nikki Haley Is a Liar: The wannabe GOP nominee sent out a press release a little over a week ago in which she claimed an $11 million haul. That's quite good, especially for someone who hasn't been indicted. However, while a candidate is free to lie in their press releases, it's a crime to lie on their fundraising reports. And the truth is that Haley raised $3.3 million, while transferring another $1.8 million from her existing war chest funds. We haven't checked the numbers, but before heading out to celebrate the feast day of Apollonius the Apologist, the staff mathematician told us that adds up to $5.1 million, which is less than $11 million.
   
   
3. Burn, Baby, Burn: Supporters of Marianne Williamson decided that, instead of throwing their cash into an open fire, they would do something less efficient, and send it to the candidate for her presidential campaign. She collected $673,000, and then tossed in $100,000 of her own money.
   
   
4. California's Senate Race Is in Full Swing...: Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) declared too late to be subject to the reporting deadline, but Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) pulled in $6.5 million while Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) raised $4.5 million. That's quite a lot for so early in the cycle, although it will also be a drop in the bucket compared to how much the candidates will ultimately spend. Recall, for example, that Porter spent nearly $30 million last cycle, and that was just one congressional district. Out of 52.
   
   California's top-two system creates an interesting incentive structure here. Virtually every Democrat in the state and in the country would prefer that two Democrats advance, so that there is zero chance of a Republican winning the general, even if both Democrats are caught in bed together, accompanied by a live boy, a dead girl, a goat, Donald Trump Jr., and a guy in blackface (Eric Trump, more likely than not). However, Schiff and Porter would almost certainly prefer that a Republican make the cut. If it's Schiff or Porter vs. [California Republican], then the Democrat can just cruise to the finish line. If two Democrats make it, then it's another 5-month slog of campaigning and fundraising.
   
   
5. ...And So Is Arizona's: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) pulled in $2.1 million, which isn't bad, though it's not great, either. Particularly concerning for her is that several big chunks of her take came from employees of the same company (Blackstone employees and Carlyle Group employees each pitched in about $200,000). Needless to say, these folks are going to reach the campaign limits quickly, if they haven't already. And since Sinema won't face a primary, she can only collect $2,900 per donor and not $5,800.
   
   Meanwhile, Sinema's Democratic rival, Rep. Ruben Gallego, raised $3.7 million. That's obviously better than $2.1 million, especially since Gallego was not an official candidate for the entire quarter.
   
   
6. Key Senate Democrats Are Doing Well...: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), whose seat is a must-keep for Democrats, took in $3.5 million. Not bad, but Ohio's an expensive place to campaign, thanks to all the large media markets. Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) raised a very, very impressive $5 million. That is a heckuva lot, since Montana is a cheap place to campaign. Put it this way: Montana has 4 cities with a population greater than 50,000 people and zero with a population greater than 125,000. Ohio has 17 and 6. Or, to put it another way, there are more people in Columbus and Cleveland than there are in the entire state of Montana. Though Ohio and Montana do have the same number of Super Bowl wins.
   
   
7. ...Except for Joe Manchin: In contrast to his endangered Democratic colleagues from Ohio and Montana, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) had a pretty paltry take in Q1, with just $370,000 in receipts. That said, he's not even an official candidate yet, and he does have a $10 million war chest. In addition, West Virginia is a cheap place to campaign. And finally, Manchin's likely opponent is the richest man in the state. If this comes down to who can spend the most money, the Senator is in trouble no matter how much he raises.
   
   
8. Gaetz, Boebert and Biggs Seem to Be Doing Well...: A lot of Republican voters don't like Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), as they think he is a RINO. McCarthy's three main nemeses, namely Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Andy Biggs (R-AZ), are reaping the financial benefits of the McCarthy hatred. In Q1, they took in $675,000; $217,000 and $760,000, respectively. Much of that was from small donors, which suggests that the base is with them.
   
   
9. ...Though So Is Boebert's Opponent: Matt Gaetz's district is R+19 and Andy Biggs' is R+11, so they don't actually need all that much money to defend their seats. Lauren Boebert's district, on the other hand, is R+7, and her win last year was by the smallest margin of any House seat. So, it's not great news for her that her $760,000 was vastly outpaced by the man she barely defeated, Adam Frisch (D). He pulled in a remarkable $1.7 million. That's going to be mostly from national donors who hate Boebert and are using ActBlue to ActOut on their feelings. So, don't read too much into it yet. That said, if Frisch enters the cycle with a lead of multiple millions, that's a big deal, particularly since it's a rural district where advertising is cheap.
   
   
10. "Santos" Is Creating More Fodder for Jokes: We made a brief reference to this yesterday, but Rep. "George Santos" raised just $5,333 in Q1. That is absolutely terrible, even for a poor, rural district in Oklahoma. But for a district in New York City? "Santos" should be able to raise that much by standing in Times Square in his underwear and playing the guitar for 2 hours.
    
    But it gets worse. For various reasons, politicians have to refund donations sometimes. And in this quarter, "Santos" refunded $8,352. That means his net for the quarter was roughly negative $3,000. It's not easy for a sitting officeholder to do that poorly. That's like losing money as the owner of an Atlantic City casino. It's nearly inconceivable.

All of these numbers need to be taken with many grains of salt, since it's so early in the process, and since there are undoubtedly some candidates who are spending big bucks on fundraising in order to inflate their totals (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-GA, for example, is famous for this). Still, it's interesting to get a tentative lay of the land. (Z)