Apr.24

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

First Take on Some Southern California House Seats

California is going to be a big battleground for House seats, with half a dozen seats likely to be competitive. The Cook Political Report has taken a first look at those in Southern California. Some of them are locked in, including these:

Solid Democratic: CA-24, 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 42, 43, 44, 46, 50, 51, 52
Solid Republican: CA-23, 48

However there are six districts that are not solid for one party or the other, so lets look at them:

• CA-27 (Santa Clarita, Lancaster, Palmdale): This is Katie Hill's old district. It has been a problem for the Democrats ever since she resigned in a sex scandal—which, of course, was unusual, since it is almost always men who are caught up in sex scandals, not women. Joe Biden won it by 20 points, even though the district is only D+4. The current congressman is Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA). He won by emphasizing his background as a Navy pilot. The Democrats have a strong candidate in George Whitesides. He was NASA's chief of staff under Barack Obama and was later CEO of Virgin Galactic. He is very wealthy and can self-fund the race. He can also point out that he brought in 700 jobs to the district when he was Galactic's CEO. Tossup.
  
  
• CA-40 (Yorba Linda, part of Fullerton, Mission Viejo) This is a swing district (R+2) occupied by Rep. Young Kim (R-CA). The district is completely new as a result of the 2020 redistricting. In 2022, Democratic physician Asif Mahmood lost to Kim and probably won't be back. Democrats think Kim is vulnerable due to her votes against certifying the 2020 election and against same-sex marriage. Democrats will hunt high and low for a challenger, but they don't have one yet. Also, Kim is a close ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and he will spend whatever it takes to protect Kim. Despite the PVI, likely Republican.
  
  
• CA-41 (Riverside County, Corona, Menifee, Palm Desert) The district is R+3 and occupied by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA). Redistricting made the district bluer and Calvert barely won it against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who is gay, 52% to 48%. Democrats hope Rollins will try again. He raised $3.7 million in 2022, is better known now, and the electorate is more favorable to him. Last time, the DCCC didn't attack Calvert, but now that they know how close it was, they might in 2024. Leans Republican.
  
  
• CA-45 (Orange County, Westminster, Garden Grove, part of Fullerton) This district will be a big Democratic target since it is D+2 and the current representative is Michelle Steel (R-CA), who is from Korea. In 2022, Democrats ran a Navy Reserve officer, Jay Chen. The race was very racist on both sides. The district is 41% Asian-American. At first, the Democrats were happy when Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen jumped in. Her father is Vietnamese and her mother is a Mexican American. But she raised only $49,000 in Q1, so Democrats are now less optimistic. Maybe some other Democrat will jump in yet. Leans Republican.
  
  
• CA-47 (Orange County, Irvine, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach) This is an open seat because Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) is running for the Senate. The district is D+3, with Irvine leaning left and the beach towns leaning right. The Republicans have their candidate in Scott Baugh, who Porter beat 52% to 48% in 2022. The Democrats looked like they were staring at a nasty primary battle between former representative Harley Rouda and state Sen. Dave Min. But Rouda withdrew for health reasons, so it looks like Baugh vs. Min. Leans Democratic.
  
  
• CA-49 (Northern San Diego County, including Oceanside and Encinitas) This oceanside district is full of Republicans who hate Donald Trump but are open to down-ballot Republicans sometimes. In 2022, Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) beat Brian Maryott (R) 53% to 47%, despite Kevin McCarthy spending $6 million attacking Levin. Some Republicans would like to try a woman or a Latino/a against Levin in 2024, but they don't have a strong candidate yet. Likely Democratic.
  

So despite California being deep blue, there are six House races worth watching in Southern California alone. In a blue wave, Democrats could possibly knock off Garcia, Kim, Calvert, and Steel, getting four of the five seats they need to take over the House right in Southern California. (V)