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UnTucked

Quite a few outlets went with "Tuck Off!" Truth be told, if we had used that particular pun, we would have gone with: "Shut the Tuck Up!" However, that direction seems a bit obvious to us. On the other hand, when your shirttail is untucked, it indicates a state of disarray that was probably unplanned, and that will eventually be rectified. That seems to be a pretty good way to describe the situation at Fox right now, following their surprise termination of their marquee star, Tucker Carlson.

On Fridays, of course, we do schadenfreude of the week. It's probably a good thing we don't do schadenfreude of the year, because the award for 2023 would be already sewn up. Tuckkker (auto-correct seems to insist on that spelling, for some reason) is a terrible human being, regardless of your underlying politics. He spent the majority of his time on the air telling viewers whom to fear and/or hate, usually targeting various minority groups, including Black people, Jews, and trans folks. As he made his "case" for his agenda, the now-former Foxer used all sorts of dishonest persuasion techniques, including misrepresenting or outright inventing factual information. And like Rush Limbaugh, for whom Carlson served as spiritual heir, he didn't even believe most of the crap he was peddling, as revealed in the text messages made public courtesy of Dominion.

So, why was Carlson fired? That's the question everyone wants an answer to, even though a full and honest answer may never come. We've pondered the situation all day long, and decided we are going to present 10 theories. Note that by all indications, Carlson was caught by surprise, and did not instigate this in any way (in fact, when he found out, he was deep in preparations for the Monday edition of his bile). So, our list is going to focus only on motivations from the Fox side.

Also note that it is entirely possible, and even likely, that more than one theory is correct. And with that said:

  1. Dominion Insisted: A popular theory that made the rounds yesterday was that, as part of the settlement agreement signed last week, Dominion Voting Systems insisted that Carlson be fired. Interesting theory, but we doubt it. First of all, if it's not in writing, it's not enforceable. Second, there were numerous reports that Lachlan Murdoch made the decision to fire Carlson on Friday night, after much thought. We are inclined to believe those reports are true, and if so, that's incongruous with it being part of the Dominion settlement. If it was part of the settlement, there would be no need for thought, and no need for a decision.

  2. The Fall Guy, Part I: Keeping in mind that Fox (apparently) already tried to make Maria Bartiromo a scapegoat for the Dominion mess, it's entirely possible that Carlson now gets to be the "cancer" that was responsible for what happened. Fox might well have decided that "we got rid of Carlson" could be a useful point in its defense in future lawsuits, like the one from Smartmatic.

  3. The Fall Guy, Part II: Alternatively, Fox might be worried that, despite the network's best efforts to bury the story, its viewers have learned about the Dominion settlement. This could allow them (or their friendly supporters in the media) to circulate the story that Carlson was to blame for everything, that he's been shown the door, and that Fox's loyal viewers can go back to trusting the network they know and love.

  4. The Fall Guy, Part III: It could also be that Fox is less worried about blaming someone for the election lies, and more worried about blaming someone for ongoing sexual harassment issues, which seem to happen a lot at that network, for some reason. There are already at least two pending suits against Carlson and his staff, and it could be those that Fox is trying to get out in front of.

  5. Unknown Legal Issues: Finally, before we leave the legal theories behind, we will note that there could be one or more shoes that have not dropped yet, and that Fox could be aware of some sort of pending legal action or scandal involving Carlson that is not yet widely known. It could be that X-factor that the network is trying to get out in front of.

  6. Cord Cutting: It's not a great time for people in the cable business, as more and more Americans are chucking their cable service entirely and going to various à la carte options. Fox just paid out a big chunk of change, it's probably going to pay out one or more additional big chunks, and it might not be as profitable down the road as its older viewers die off while younger viewers skip cable entirely. The network will have to pay Carlson's $20 million salary for a couple more years as he has a contract, but if they can replace him with a $6 million man (We can rebuild him. We have the technology.), then long-term they will realize big-time cost savings. The termination of Don Lemon at CNN (see below) and of Dan Bongino over the weekend at Fox may speak to the same basic concern.

  7. It's a Business Decision: Similarly, the problem might not be Carlson's salary, per se, but the value of his program. It is consistently #1 in its time slot, but the ad inventory is apparently somewhat difficult to sell. Because Tucker is pretty toxic, most brands don't want to have anything to do with him, and Fox can only sell so many ads to the MyPillow guy, WeatherTec and Balance of Nature.

  8. You're Not the Boss of Me: Thanks to Dominion, Fox hosts are about to enter a brave new world in which their coverage is subjected to careful review by attorneys. It would be entirely in character for Carlson to make clear that he is above such things, and he has no interest in adjusting his show based on what a bunch of lawyers say.

  9. The King Is Dead, Long Live the King: There was a time, not too many months ago, where the folks at Fox foresaw a hopeful new future in which Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) could be their man of the hour, and Donald Trump could be a distant memory. It was during that time that Carlson apparently said some none-too-flattering things about Trump.

    These days, reality has set in. DeSantis is sinking, and it is likely Trump will be the Republican candidate for president next year. He could also win the election. That means that Fox hosts will need to do between 2 and 6 more years of sucking up to The Donald. It will not be easy to do that if the network's star entertainer is a known Trump hater.

  10. He's Just an A**hole: Sometimes, the larger plan is as simple as "We are tired of this jerk, and don't want to be around him anymore." Carlson famously got way too big for his britches, and developed a reputation for treating everyone badly, including badmouthing the muckety-mucks at Fox. Carlson's producer, who also got fired yesterday, developed the same reputation. So, the firing could have been personal.

Again, we don't know more than anyone else in the general public knows. But there is no way that the firing was completely unrelated to the Dominion case, so that has to be part of the solution to the mystery. At the same time, we suspect the Dominion settlement was a final straw, and this has been building for a while. If you insisted on us putting the pieces together, we would speculate that the Murdochs got tired of Carlson's salary and his bad behavior around the office, and that after the Dominion settlement, they had an opportunity to get rid of him while also creating a scapegoat for the whole mess and sending a message to every other Fox employee that a new era has arrived and nobody is safe if they don't keep their noses clean. Any one of these things might not have been enough to cause the network to push its biggest star out the door, but in aggregate, well, "Bye, Tucker!"

So, what is next for Fox? They are going to rotate hosts through the 8:00 p.m. slot until deciding on a permanent replacement for Carlson. In other words, though Fox isn't using this exact word, there are going to be a bunch of folks auditioning for Carlson's old job. If you asked us to guess who will be in that chair when the dust settles, we'd probably go with Greg Gutfeld. He seems to be able to deliver the ratings without nearly as much of the bile, and he's also a white guy, which we assume is a prerequisite for that slot on that network. Whoever succeeds Carlson will surely become a right-wing superstar; it's the network that's key, not the talent. After all, Bill O'Reilly was just as successful in that slot until he got canned.

And what is next for Carlson? We haven't seen his contract, of course, so we don't know what kind of noncompete verbiage he has, if any. He's not likely to show up on any other cable news network, even after his contract expires, as OAN/Newsmax/News Nation are too small potatoes, while CNN and MSNBC are too lefty (and, also, have both fired Carlson). Truth is, he's a prime candidate to start a podcast, either on his own or with one of the existing podcast networks, with him retaining partial ownership.

There's also been much talk, in the past, of Carlson going into politics. Certainly possible, as he lives in an era where experience is no longer required if one wants to be elected to high office, and he's a member of a party that is outright disdainful of experience and expertise. Still, the House of Representatives is surely "beneath" him and, as a resident of Florida, he's blocked for a long time from a U.S. Senate seat or from the governor's mansion. There's probably not a lane for him for a 2024 presidential run, and he's not going to be Trump's VP, since Trump does not forget the sort of insults Carlson lobbed his way. DeSantis/Carlson 2024, assuming Carlson establishes residence in some other state? Maybe, but we are increasingly doubtful that a flailing-in-the-polls DeSantis will take his shot this year. And if he doesn't, then there's no VP slot available to offer to Tucker.

There must have been something in the air yesterday, because Carlson wasn't the only high-profile a**hole to get booted out of his high-profile job; Aaron Rodgers was finally traded from the Packers, who have won a championship in this millennium, to the Jets, who haven't. And in addition, well, keep reading... (Z)



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