Apr.26

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Biden 2024 Is a Go

Joe Biden said his official 2024 campaign announcement would come on Tuesday. And so it did; early in the day the president released a video and a statement; both confirmed that he will indeed seek a second term in the White House.

If you want to see the video, here it is:

Like Biden himself, it's capable but not terribly exciting. Though the campaign needs to fire whoever served as music supervisor, and find someone better. Is John Williams a Democrat?

At this very early date, here's our sense of the key dynamics in the 2024 presidential election:

• The Road to the Nomination: Biden, who is a wily behind-the-scenes operator, has cleared the decks of any serious challengers. He's got Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but neither of them is going to affect Biden much, except to the extent that their wackiness underscores his normalcy (the way that Strom Thurmond's Dixiecrat campaign made Harry S. Truman look like a moderate on race). He can now sit back for a year or so, raise lots of money, and let people slowly acclimate to the notion of 4 more years.
  
  Donald Trump appears to have a pretty clear path to the nomination, too. That said, he's got legal problems to overcome (see below), as well as a real challenger or two. There's also going to be some infighting and backbiting on the Republican side. So, the next year figures to be kinder to Biden than Trump.
  
  
• The Issues: The Republicans released their first anti-Biden ad yesterday; here it is:
  
  
  
  It is an AI-generated "vision" of the future, in which Biden's policies have ruined America. One wonders why the AI was necessary; did the GOP not know Biden was planning to announce on Tuesday? In any event, the careful reader will notice that the Republicans are apparently planning to run on their predictions for what Biden might do, as opposed to what he's already done. That kind of suggests a situation where they don't have many good lines of attack.
  
  Judging by his video, Biden plans to run on things Republicans actually did do, as opposed to things they might do. For example, foment insurrection (the first image of the entire video) and ban abortion.
  
  
• Enthusiasm: You will see many stories about how Joe Biden's approval rating is very poor right now. In fact, it's at a level that's historically been fatal for presidents who hope to get reelected.
  
  We don't think this is very meaningful. First, there's a long time until the election, and many presidents have been in the low 40s 18 months out (including St. Ronnie of Reagan). Second, approval ratings don't seem to mean what they once did, and it's pretty clear that some percentage of those "disapprove of Biden" folks are unhappy because he hasn't been progressive enough. Needless to say, while some of those voters might stay home on Election Day, many of them will be highly motivated to vote out of concern for a President DeSantis or a President Trump (redux). Third, and finally, it's not great to be in the 40s when you're running for reelection. But if you're up against a guy in the 30s, then it's a case of "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king."
  
  
• Age...: Joe Biden's age is almost certainly his single greatest liability. If he faces off against Donald Trump, a man just 3 years his junior, then it becomes rather less of an issue, unless one of them has a really bad meltdown. If a younger Republican, like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) ends up as the GOP nominee, you are going to hear about Biden's age every damn day.
  
  
• ...and the Veeps: If both candidates are octogenarians, or soon will be, then the biggest impact of that is going to be a vice-presidential comparison. That is to say, there will be much discussion of which candidate has the most "presidential" running mate. Certainly, that's going to be a question that Biden voters will keep in mind, regardless of the identity of the Republican nominee. And it's pretty clear that Biden is going to stick with Kamala Harris; she features heavily in his video and all the e-mail blasts that went out yesterday referred to them both.
  
  Harris is not especially popular, but VPs never really are. There is a reason that Teddy Roosevelt spoke of the bully pulpit and not the bully pulpits, as the VP remains in the shadow of the president until, well, they are not. Harris is clearly competent, and there is no concern that she might do something nutty like nuke all the blue states. So, we think she'll pass the "could I see her as president?" test.
  
  If DeSantis is the nominee, his running mate won't matter as much, given his relatively young age. That said, while we could see him choosing someone reasonable, we could also see him choosing someone whackadoodle to please the base and own the libs. If the Governor does the latter, it will raise questions about his judgment, and some voters will indeed consider that the whackadoodle running mate could plausibly become president. After all, roughly 10% of all presidents are assassinated. If the Governor chooses a reasonably sane running mate, then whatever VP talk there is will be about Harris.
  
  If Trump is the nominee, he is almost certainly going to choose a loon as his running mate; probably Kari Lake. And Lake compares unfavorably to Harris in every meaningful way we can think of. Indeed, between Trump's behavior and Lake's, it's a ticket that would have everyone but the base terrified.

The executive summary is that we generally think Biden has the upper hand here, particularly if matched against Trump. Of course, there are approximately 79.9 lifetimes between now and Election Day, so things could change. (Z)