Aug.07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Neither Trump Nor Biden Can Win

Very few people are excited about a rematch of Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump, but it looks like that is what we may get. Rematches are actually somewhat common. This would be the seventh time it happened. Here are the first six:

• John Adams vs. Thomas Jefferson (1796 and 1800)
• John Quincy Adams vs. Andrew Jackson (1824 and 1828)
• Martin van Buren vs. William Henry Harrison (1836 and 1840)
• Grover Cleveland vs. Benjamin Harrison (1888 and 1892)
• William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan (1896 and 1900)
• Dwight Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson (1952 and 1956)

Dan McLaughlin over at National Review has a column arguing that neither of them can win. It is an interesting take on the race from a conservative viewpoint.

• Age: Biden's decline has passed the point of no return. He can't speak, campaign, or debate. The best he can do on his best days is leave people a little less concerned that he is senile.
  
  
• Image: Biden's image with the public is now fixed and nothing can change it, even if he were to reinvent himself. Voters think he is too old and it is only getting worse.
  
  
• Power: With the Republicans in charge of the House, Biden can't pull off any more policy that voters might like. The Republicans are certainly not going to help him. Most of what he can still do would be stopped by the courts. There aren't even any XOs left that he could do.
  
  
• Harris: Biden picked Harris because she is Black and a woman. She is a terrible candidate but his base would revolt if he dumped her, so he is stuck with her. Republicans can campaign on "she's only a heartbeat away from the presidency."

• Age: Trump is no spring chicken either. He's 77 now and looking more tired and less fun by the day. In 2016, he kept surprising people, and that made him interesting to voters and the media. Now it's all reruns and far less exciting.
  
  
• Opinions of him are fixed: Trump has been the main character in American politics since 2015. Everyone has an opinion of him by now and nobody is going to change his or her opinion. As demonstrated in 2016 and 2020, more people dislike him than like him. Getting indicted three or four times isn't going to win him new supporters.
  
  
• Ceiling: Trump has a hard ceiling of 47% in national elections. There is nothing he can do to get above that. Also, in his two previous races, he made a lot of enemies in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Those people are not going to suddenly start loving him.
  
  
• Campaign staff: Trump has alienated, burned out, and blacklisted so many people that putting together an A-list campaign team will be impossible. Those people will not work for him. Neither will the B-listers. So he is going to have to go with ambitious C-listers and hopeful D-listers.
  
  
• The trials: The many legal proceedings and trials in the upcoming year are going to be a huge drain on his time, energy, and budget. Time he may want to spend holding rallies may have to be spent in courtrooms. In those courtrooms, there will be a slew of eyewitnesses telling about how they personally saw him commit crimes. That testimony will dominate the news and blot out everything else. It will be hard for him to be heard above the din.
  

Of course, if Biden and Trump are the candidates, one of them has to win, despite all his flaws. A recent poll had them tied at 43% apiece. That means 14% of the electorate is still on the fence. The election will be about turnout and getting a bigger slice of that 14%. (V)