Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Rosendale Is about to Jump in

Another state where the Republican Senate field is in flux is Montana. The NRSC has its candidate in rich businessman Tim Sheehy. The only fly in the ointment is that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), the Freedom Caucuser who was formerly Montana's only Representative and now represents Montana's 2nd district, seems poised to challenge Sheehy. He has hired Kari Lake's fundraiser and has been appearing all summer at events in the other Montana district. Normally congressmen don't spend a lot of time campaigning in some district other than their own unless they are planning to run for some statewide office. Challenging the reelection bid of Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) seems very unlikely. Rosendale clearly has his eyes set on the Senate. From the point of view of Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), a knock-down, drag-out fight between a right-wing Republican (Sheehy) and a far-right-wing Republican (Rosendale) would be wonderful. If Rosendale were to win, it would be even better, since Tester beat Rosendale in 2018.

Rosendale has secured the support of Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Mike Lee (R-UT), and the Heritage Foundation's Jim DeMint, as well as the Freedom Caucus, Turning Point Action, and other extreme right-wing groups. On the other hand, the Club for Growth has wavered and may not support Rosendale in the primary. That would be a big hit for him, but he might still do it even without them. (V)

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