Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Boebert Is in Real Danger of Losing Her Seat

Of the members of Congress who might be described as "show horses" (as opposed to work horses), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) is almost certainly the most vulnerable. Her district, CO-03, is R+6, which means that the generic Republican has a roughly 52%-48% built-in advantage. That Republican doesn't have to alienate too many moderate voters to fritter that advantage away. And that appears to be happening here.

Recall that Boebert's race, in 2022, was the closest in the country, and was not resolved for several weeks after Election Day, with the Representative ultimately winning by a mere 546 votes out of 327,132 cast (0.16% of the total). Recall also that her opponent, Adam Frisch, is back for another run at the job, and this time is well known and well funded. Finally, recall that Boebert has been particularly unpleasant this term, with her fight with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and her undermining of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), not to mention a likely central role in any government shutdowns that might happen later this year.

Anyhow, Frisch knows full well that he needs to take the lion's share of independent voters in order to unseat Boebert, and so he's been focusing on those folks. And, according to a new poll from Keating Research, it's working. He's leading by 17 points among independent voters (and, incidentally, 32 points among Latinos). Consequently, he holds a 2-point lead in the head-to-head matchup against Boebert, 50% to 48%. This despite the fact that among the same respondents, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden 49% to 44%.

It's a long time to Election Day, and 2 points is within the margin of error, of course. But, as noted, Boebert could well do even more damage to herself this fall, during the fight over the budget. She's falling far behind in fundraising, and could well end up with a primary challenger. For Frisch, by contrast, the path is clear, the money is plentiful, and he's not likely to alienate voters with high-profile shenanigans. So, his chances are looking pretty good. (Z)

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