Dem
51
GOP
49
As of today, the House breakdown is 221 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 1 vacancy (NY-03). When Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) resigns early next year to become president of Youngstown State University, it will be 220R, 213D. If Kevin McCarthy resigns from the House shortly, as rumors suggest he will do, it will then be 219R, 213D. Under those conditions, any time three Republicans vote with the Democrats, the bill fails, 216-216. McCarthy's decision should be clear soon as the filing deadline for 2024 is Dec. 8. He's unlikely to file to run for reelection and then resign from the House 2 weeks later. Though note that failure to file does not necessarily imply an immediate resignation. In that case, he could still finish his current term out.
Vacant seats are filled by special elections, but those are typically 3 months after the vacancy occurs. The seats of Bill Johnson and McCarthy are safely Republican, but Democrats have a decent shot at winning NY-03, especially since their best candidate, Tom Suozzi, occupied that seat before "George Santos" ran for it. In the worst case scenario for the Republicans, the House could be 219R, 214D for a couple of months until all the seats are filled. The battle for the swing district, NY-03, could be a preview of the 2024 races, especially in the New York districts Republicans hold. Will the Democrat run on "All the Republicans are like 'Santos'" or will it be abortion or something else? Special elections normally are quiet affairs, but the one for "Santos'" seat will be a real barnburner.
In January, the House must pass bills to keep the government open. If Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) loads the bills full of conservative goodies, there could be a few defections, leading to a government shutdown. Johnson won't have much margin for error. If he bows to the Freedom Caucus, some of the Biden 18 may vote against him. If he doesn't bow to the FC, some of the FC members may vote against him. With such a thin margin, even a champion cat herder, like Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), would be challenged. Johnson probably couldn't herd sheep, even with five trained German shepherd dogs, let alone cats. (V)