Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Hunter Biden: Falling

After multiple attempts at plea deals fell through, Special Counsel David Weiss' team indicted First Son Hunter Biden yesterday.

Biden faces nine counts, which, according to the staff mathematician, is roughly 10% of 91. All of the counts are related to tax shenanigans, and include failure to file and pay taxes, evasion of assessment, and filing of false or fraudulent tax returns. After being caught, Biden squared his bill, paying what he owed plus penalties. But that doesn't mean he's not guilty of the original crimes, nor that he does not owe a debt to society. If he gets the maximum on all counts, Biden would serve 17 years. Of course, it would be very, very unusual for a first-time offender to get the max.

When it comes to this case, there is one thing we are absolutely certain of: No matter what happens, the right-wing media will discover evidence that the system is biased in favor of Democrats/Bidens and is biased against Republicans/Trumps. If another, passable plea deal is hammered out, it will be "How come Donald Trump doesn't get a plea deal?" If the trial is delayed, it will be "How come Donald Trump can't delay his trial?" If Biden is convicted, and is hit with, say, 2 years (which would be about par for the course), it will be "Slap on the wrist! Donald Trump would have been hit with the full 17 years!"

There is also one thing we have no idea about: How this story will affect the 2024 presidential race. Certainly, it could become an anchor around Joe Biden's neck, particularly if there's a trial, and it happens at the height of campaign season (say, August of next year). On the other hand, we're not sure the "Biden crime family" narrative is landing with anyone other than Trump's base. And even if it is landing with people beyond the base, it could become rather less salient if the race is "candidate with son who has been convicted of felonies" vs. "candidate who has himself been convicted of felonies." Also, it seems to us that there are several other complaints about Biden (age, economy, Israel) that seem to be of far greater interest to voters than his son's misdeeds.

In any event, it's another "known unknown." Anyone who says they can predict right now what will happen next November, given how very many very large known unknowns there are, is full of it. (Z)

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