Dec.20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Whither the Biden Economy?

Right now, Joe Biden is getting beaten up on the economy, since people see themselves paying more for things, while their income is not keeping up. This said, getting beaten up in December 2023 matters very little. Getting beaten up in October 2024 matters a great deal. To that end, The Bulwark's Jonathan Last, building on the arguments of economist Noah Smith, predicts that the picture will be very different in late 2024 when it comes to perception of the economy.

To start, it's a widely accepted truth that perceptions of the economy lag the actual performance of the economy by 8-12 months. The current upturn in the economy became noticeable about 6 months ago. So, if people are going to get bullish on the economy, we really wouldn't expect to see that until spring of next year.

Businesses, by contrast, tend to follow trendlines more closely, and it looks like they like what they are seeing. Inflation is down and interest rates aren't going to change anytime soon, and so businesses are preparing to unleash massive investment. Goldman Sachs just issued a report that says that while 2024 was already expected to be a good year, it's now shaping up to be a GREAT year.

The minor point here is that the apparent incongruity between "the state of the economy" and "people's perceptions of the economy" may resolve itself, to the benefit of the President and the Democrats. Of course, economic predictions often go up in smoke, and it's also possible that the dislike/resentment of Biden is sui generis, but it's also well within the realm of possibility that what is currently a liability for the President could turn into a strength.

The major point here is that there are a dizzying array of unknowns heading into the 2024 presidential election. Let's start with a list of five unknowns that we've written about today, or in the past few days:

1. What do approval numbers really mean these days?
2. How would a Trump conviction or convictions affect the election?
3. What will happen in polls once the possibility of dumping Biden has faded?
4. Will Trump be able to stay on the ballot in all/enough states?
5. What will perceptions of the economy look like 9 months from now?

And now, let's add five more that we've written about in past weeks and months:

6. What will happen with the situation in Israel?
7. What will happen with the situation in Ukraine?
8. What will happen with the situation at the border?
9. Will the Supreme Court throw another grenade into the election by trying to ban mifepristone?
10. Will either presidential candidate have a major health scare?

And this list is hardly comprehensive. But all of this is why, right now, presidential polling numbers don't mean much of anything. (Z)