Dec.26

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Last Refuge of Ticket-Splitting? We Think Not

Since Washington is pretty much shut down (deliberately, not by a Ted Cruz tantrum), these are the dog days for people who write about politics. So, we are at least somewhat sympathetic to the two Politico writers who tried to squeeze some important insight out of the 2024 gubernatorial elections. The piece is headlined "Can ticket-splitting governor races survive a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024?" And the thesis is: "America's governors have been the last bulwark against complete political polarization. That dynamic might not survive Donald Trump being on the ballot again."

We read the article with much interest, because we thought we might have missed something in the 2020 results. In fact, we really didn't. In that year, the number of states that voted one way for governor, and the other way for president was... three. And each of the three is pretty clearly sui generis, for one reason or another:

1. New Hampshire: Chris Sununu (R) was an incumbent, and scion of the state's foremost political dynasty. The Granite State is very purple (PVI: D+1); the Democrats there tend to be pretty moderate, while the Republicans tend to be Reagan Republicans (like Sununu) and not Trump Republicans.
   
   
2. North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) was also an incumbent, and a moderate. His opponent, Dan Forest (R), was a far-right nutter. North Carolina is also very purple (PVI: R+3).
   
   
3. Vermont: Phil Scott (R) was—wait for it—an incumbent, and a very popular one at that. While Vermont is very blue (PVI: D+16), voters there tend to pride themselves on their independent streak, which is why one of their senators (Bernie Sanders) isn't a Democrat or a Republican.

Meanwhile, in 2024, there are a total of four states where it's even slightly plausible that the presidential result and the gubernatorial result might be different:

1. New Hampshire: Sununu is retiring, and the race is a toss-up.
   
   
2. North Carolina: Cooper is retiring, and the race leans slightly Democratic, because the Democrats are likely to nominate a Cooper clone in AG Josh Stein, while the Republicans are likely to nominate another nutter in Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
   
   
3. Vermont: Scott is not retiring, but some people think that maybe there will be a blue wave that washes him overboard. We don't buy it.
   
   
4. Washington: Jay Inslee (D) is retiring, and some people think that moderate Republican Dave Reichert might be able to replace him. Seems like a longshot to us.

In short, there were three governor/president splits in 2020, and in 2024 there will probably be two, and maybe three. There are just no firm conclusions to be drawn here about increased polarization over the past 4 years. (Z)