Dec.27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

...Meanwhile, Can Ronna Romney McDaniel Last the Year?

RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel is just awful at her job. She might well be the worst RNC chair in the history of the Party. Let's do a quick rundown of her litany of failures:

• Elections: The #1 job of a party chair is to win elections, and the Republican Party has been on a terrible run since McDaniel took over in 2017. In 2018, the Republicans did hold the Senate, but they lost big in House races, with the Democrats netting 41 seats and control of the lower chamber. In 2020, the Republicans lost the White House and the Senate while failing to reclaim the House. In 2022, the "red wave" became a red splash; Republicans did re-take the House (barely), but saw the Democrats grow their majority in the Senate by one seat. And off-year elections have not been any friendlier, including the numerous disasters this November, particularly in Virginia. Oh, and don't forget loss after loss anytime an abortion initiative has been on the ballot.
  
  
• Strategy: Speaking of abortion, there is no sign that McDaniel has the faintest idea how to help the Party juggle that hot potato in 2024. Rather than acknowledge that it's an Achilles' heel for the GOP, she keeps doubling and tripling down on the notion that anti-choice is a winner, even though polls AND election results say it most certainly is not. It's true that this may be a Gordian knot that cannot be solved, but a party leader needs to come up with something more than the head-in-the-sand routine.
  
  
• Fundraising: The #2 job of a party chair, which is obviously closely connected with job #1, is to raise money. McDaniel has been a failure here, as well. The RNC has consistently lagged the DNC during her tenure, and usually by a fair margin. Right now, there is just $9.1 million in the RNC's bank account, the lowest figure since 2015. McDaniel insists that we're just not into fundraising season yet, but the DNC's take for Q3 was double that of the RNC, while the DNC also has more than $20 million cash on hand.
  
  
• Debates: This year's Republican candidates' debates were nothing short of an embarrassment for the RNC. First there was the silly "loyalty pledge" requirement, which no one took seriously. Then there was the Committee's inability to get their likely nominee to show up for the debates. The debates themselves were poorly moderated, and were largely given over to godawful broadcast partners, with NewsNation being a particular low. It's gone so badly that McDaniel threw up her hands, said the RNC was done organizing debates and that if there were going to be any more meetings, someone else could handle it (CNN and ABC both stepped forward).
  
  
• Trump: Obviously, a sizable chunk of the problems outlined above can be traced right back to one Donald J. Trump. He's dragging the party down at election time. He is sucking up money that might otherwise go to the RNC. He is refusing to debate. But the fact is that he's the effective head of the party, and it's the job of the RNC chair to find a way to work with him. McDaniel has never had the slightest luck with influencing Trump, trying to get him to be a team player, trying to get him to tone it down, etc. That most other people would have failed at the same task does not change the fact that McDaniel failed spectacularly.

All of this said, McDaniel's flaws and failures were well known when she was reelected to a third term as RNC Chair. So, clearly an inability to do things like win elections and raise money are not entirely disqualifying. However, she's now got two additional problems on her ledger:

• The Phone Call: As we noted earlier this week, McDaniel was not only a party to the Donald Trump call in which he tried to persuade Michigan officials not to certify the vote, she also offered a quid pro quo in which free legal help would be given in exchange for the officials' defiance. This is likely illegal.
  
  Donald Trump is thus far bulletproof when it comes to crimes and/or alleged crimes. The same is not true of his underlings. It could be that the members of the RNC decide that McDaniel can't handle a presidential election and a potential criminal proceeding at the same time. It could also be that the RNC throws her under the bus to try to save Trump ("Donald Trump and the RNC don't support this kind of behavior, and anyone who does has to go!"). It is also possible, since the matter is pretty simple, that McDaniel ends up convicted, or accepting a plea deal, in short order. We're not dialed in when it comes to the upper echelons of the Republican Party, but Karl Rove is, and he thinks McDaniel is "in trouble."
  
  
• Trump: Two things are true of Trump, and are relevant here: (1) He invariably grows weary of fawning underlings, and turns on them, not unlike Joseph Stalin did; (2) Any Republican failures are someone else's fault and not his. Taken together, the only question is "How long until McDaniel is in Trump's doghouse?" And the answer is: "She already is." Trump has reportedly "soured" on McDaniel, in part because of his own proclivities, and in part because he's getting constant earsful from nervous conservatives about how bad she is. Trump cannot fire McDaniel, per se, but he can make her position untenable and effectively force her to step down.

It is at least possible that McDaniel weathers the storm, either because it's unwise to change horses midstream, or because there's nobody else who is qualified and is willing to take the job. That said, if we were betting whether or not McDaniel will still be in her job one year from now, we'd bet against it. Heck, her position might be tenuous enough that it could be time to launch a Ronna Romney McDaniel head of lettuce cam. (Z)