Jan.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Who's Running? (Democratic Edition)

Yesterday, we had a rundown of the 2024 Republican field, as it appears to be shaping up at the moment. Right now, that contest appears to be Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Donald Trump and... everyone else. But it's a long ways until the election, and there is plenty of time for the two "frontrunners" to go the Rudy/Jeb!/Hillary 2008 route, and for someone else to rise to the top of the heap.

The same is true for the Democratic field, excepting that instead of two frontrunner candidates, there's just one. And that one, Joe Biden, is rather less likely to be knocked from his perch than either DeSantis or Trump. But he's hardly a sure thing, especially since nobody, even an incumbent, is a sure thing. So, here's a rundown of the 2024 field, in our view, from most to least likely to secure the blue team's nomination. Note that, despite the headline, none of these folks (beyond Biden) has given the slightest indication they are running. We just have to speculate that they might be doing a little maneuvering behind the scenes:

• Joe Biden: When the White House began to allow "leaks" about Biden's intent to run again, we didn't find it to be all that meaningful. After all, he has to pretend to be a candidate for as long as is possible, so as to avoid lame duck status. But now, after the Democrats' unexpectedly successful midterms, we think Biden will indeed stand for a second term, barring some sort of major health setback. And the Democrats have been clearing the decks for him; at the moment, it doesn't even look like he'll draw a serious or semi-serious challenger (à la Teddy Kennedy in 1980).
  
  
• Kamala Harris: If Biden does drop out, for whatever reason, then the backup plan is VP Kamala Harris. She didn't connect with voters in the 2020 primaries, but she's got big-time name recognition, and she would probably have Biden's endorsement. Also, the list of people who botched their first national campaign, but then went on to win the second one, is pretty long, and includes Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson and Ronald Reagan.
  
  
• Gavin Newsom: By virtue of California's wonky recall law, the California governor has won two impressive victories in the last 2 years (and three in the last 4 years). We actually think his landslide 2022 victory might give a false impression as to his popularity, but we also think the same thing about DeSantis. And Newsom has already proven very skilled at trolling DeSantis, which might just be the right strategy for countering the Governor, if he is indeed the nominee. Of course, Newsom would be pretty good at trolling Trump, too.
  
  
• Gretchen Whitmer: As a moderate, a swing-stater, a woman, and someone with executive experience, she checks a lot of boxes. She might also get some sympathy votes given that she was targeted by a kidnapping plot.
  
  
• Pete Buttigieg: He's a rising star in the Democratic Party, and is the most visible Secretary of Transportation since... well, ever. Traveling around the country to inspect this bridge or that turnpike has allowed him to introduce himself to many voters and to rub elbows with key movers and shakers in the Democratic Party. The country probably wasn't ready to elect a gay president 10 years ago, but given that Congress passed the Respect for Marriage Act with sizable bipartisan majorities, we think that it's ready now.
  
  
• The Liberal Senators: You can never count out Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) until they give the full Sherman. However, they've both taken their best shot (twice, in Sanders' case), and they're getting a little bit up in years to consider taking on a potential 8-year commitment.
  
  
• The Moderate Senators: Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN), Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) might return for another bite at the apple if Biden falters. However, they are all young enough that it's probably best for them to hold off until 2028 if they still have White House dreams.
  
  
• The Next Generation: We can most certainly envision a year in which Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), Gov.-elect Wes Moore (D-MD), Hakeem Jeffries and/or Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez mount a serious presidential bid. We doubt 2024 is that year, however.
  
  
• Jay Inslee: Inslee is fairly lefty, comes from a blue state, is a man and was never the subject of a kidnapping plot. So, other than "executive experience," he checks none of the boxes that his fellow medium-sized-state governor Gretchen Whitmer does. However, his signature issue is global warming, and if you squint just right, you can see a path for him.
  
  
• The Castro Brothers: Julián and Joaquin Castro were once regarded as future superstars in the Democratic Party. They have largely faded from the national conversation, but they're young enough that they could rise again. If either of them jumps in, we see one viable path forward for them. They would have to convince Democratic voters, presumably aided by a lot of polling, that if a Castro is the nominee, Texas would flip to blue. A Democrat who could do that would be nearly unbeatable under current circumstances.
  
  
• Michelle Obama: On one hand, if Obama were to run, she'd beat any candidate the Republicans could put forward. On the other hand, she's made clear that she wants the job about as much as she wants a scorching case of the shingles. The only way that she ends up on a ballot is if she is persuaded that it's the only way to prevent a truly destructive Republican from occupying the White House.

We are working on a tracking poll idea, of sorts, once we clear the backlog of content we've got. So, keep an eye out for that. (Z)