Jan.03

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Back to the Future, Part I: Bad Predictions Abounded for 2022

Politico editor Zack Stanton makes a list of predictions about politics and things politics-adjacent gone wrong every year. This one was no exception. He notes that bad predictions fall into three rough categories. First, sometimes someone carefully looks at all the data and makes a careful prediction, but the world has different ideas. Many pundits looked at inflation, gas prices, general dissatisfaction in the country, and historical trends and concluded there would be a huge red wave. They were all wrong. Second is wishcasting, where someone is predicting something that they want to happen, even if the facts suggest otherwise. Third is "I know better but I have to rally the troops." Here is a selection from the complete list, sorted on date:

• Joe Biden (Dec. 10, 2021): December 2021 will be the peak of the inflation crisis.
• Karl Rove (Dec. 29, 2021): The Supreme Court won't overturn Roe.
• Carl Leubsdorf (Dec. 30, 2021): AOC will primary Sen. Chuck Schumer.
• Dick Morris (Dec. 31, 2021): Republican gains in the House will be in the neighborhood of 60-80 seats.
• El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele (Jan. 1): Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in 2022.
• Andrew Yang (Jan. 6): There will be a significant third-party presidential candidate that declares in 2022.
• Edward Snowden (Feb. 15): Assessments that Russia will invade Ukraine are part of a disinformation campaign.
• Mary Dejevsky (Feb. 15): Crimea was a complete one-off. Putin doesn't want any more territory from Ukraine.
• Rebecca Kutler (Mar. 24): CNN+ will continue to grow and evolve in the months and years to come.
• Jack Dorsey (Apr. 5): Elon Musk and Parag Agrawal will be an incredible team leading Twitter.
• Paul Krugman (Apr. 19): People who wear masks ... will soon face a mass wave of harassment, even violence.
• Thomas Knapp (Apr 28): Messing with Mickey may have just ended DeSantis' political career.
• Sean Spicer (May 12): Trump will endorse Lou Barletta in the Pennsylvania governor's race.
• David Brooks (June 8): The Jan. 6 committee has already blown it.
• Elon Musk (June 15): Massive red wave in 2022.
• Tucker Carlson (June 28): Dems are going to start adding antidepressants to the water supply.
• Joey Jackson (Aug. 10): A federal indictment of Trump is imminent.
• Chris Sununu (Sep. 13): The Dems' primary-meddling strategy will massively backfire.
• Annette Taddeo (Sep. 17): DeSantis' Martha's Vineyard stunt ... is a huge mistake for his campaign.
• Nancy Pelosi (Oct. 4): Dems will hold the House and even win more seats.
• Stephen Miller (Oct. 20): We are going to see a red tsunami.
• Andrew Feinberg (Oct.25): Fetterman lost the race tonight (the night of his debate with Mehmet Oz).
• Ted Cruz (Oct. 27): We're not just going to see a red wave, we're going to see a red tsunami.
• Erick Erickson (Oct, 31): Georgia Dems are doomed. Herschel Walker will defeat Raphael Warnock.
• Tucker Carlson (Nov. 7): These [Democrats] are people who know they're about to be crushed.
• Kari Lake (Nov 8): Kari Lake is going to be elected to two terms as governor.

Of course making predictions is hard—especially about the future. Tomorrow, we will take a look at the list of pundit predictions that we compiled at the start of 2022. (V)