Jan.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Five Events with Potentially Massive Political Consequences This Year

There are enough known unknowns that could make 2023 a momentous year in politics, even in the very unlikely event there end up being no unknown unknowns. Here is a list of some of the biggest ones:

• The circus in the House: The current battle over the House speaker is only the opening act. Unless moderate Republicans and Democrats work out some kind of power-sharing arrangement, the Freedom Caucus will run the House, no matter who the speaker is. There will be endless theatrics there that will dominate the news all year. How will this affect the voters? Die-hard Trumpists will be ecstatic and be thrilled to watch, but everyone else is likely to take a dim view of it and it could affect many people's view of what the Republican Party is all about.
  
  
• An indictment: There is a very high chance that Donald Trump will be indicted in Georgia for trying to tamper with the election results there. There is also a decent chance that special counsel Jack Smith will recommend that Trump face federal charges as well. Then, AG Merrick Garland will face the most difficult decision of his career and one that will rock the country, no matter what he decides. If Trump is put on trial for inciting an insurrection (and possibly also for illegal possession of defense documents) it will tear the country apart. But if he is not put on trial for these things, it will also tear the country apart. In any event, the impact of one or more indictments will have a huge impact on the 2024 elections.
  
  
• It's already 2024: The 2024 presidential campaign is already in full swing. Trump is already in. Joe Biden is expected to join in the spring. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is expected to announce his run after the Florida legislative session ends in May. Other candidates may well enter as well, especially if they feel Trump has been fatally wounded and DeSantis has vulnerabilities, too. In any event, we will have a full year of 2024 politics a year early.
  
  
• The world is dangerous: There are dangers all over the world. The war in Ukraine is still on and could take a dangerous turn. Ukraine could take back all of the territory Russia captured in 2022 (and maybe in 2014). Russian President Vladimir Putin might make a last-ditch attempt to salvage his reputation and power by going nuclear. Then there is China and Taiwan. China wants Taiwan back but so much manufacturing critical for the U.S. is done there that Joe Biden can't allow that. A hot war with China is a real possibility. Then there is the always unstable Middle East, which could flare up.
  
  
• The economy: To recess or not to recess, that is the question (for the economy). Will there be a recession? And also, will inflation come down? It has rarely been so difficult to judge what the economy will do. There are indicators in all directions. Yet the economy is hugely important for the 2024 elections. No recession, or a very mild recession, will help the Democrats. A deep recession will help the Republicans. It is impossible to read the tea leaves at this point.
  

And again, these are the big items we know about. There could be others that pop up out of the blue. (V)