Dem
51
GOP
49
There has been a lot of attention to the new rule that any member of the House can make a motion to vacate the chair. This attention is pointless. Unless there are 218 members who want to fire the speaker, it won't happen. If there are 218, then it hardly matters whether it takes 1, 5, 50, or 200 to support the motion to start the process.
What has gotten far too little attention is Kevin McCarthy's promise not to intervene in primaries in open districts. That sounds fairly neutral, but in practice, it will work out quite differently. When there is an open seat in a deep-red district (and there were 11 of them in 2022 in districts R+10 or more), the MAGA 20 are going to locate a prime recruit and get him or her to run. McCarthy will try to find a more normal Republican and, in some cases, may succeed.
However, what McCarthy has promised to do is not provide any funding for his candidate from his super PAC. The MAGA 20 will undoubtedly find plenty of funding for their candidates. The likely result in the next Congress is that there will be a MAGA 25, MAGA 30 or MAGA 35. Remember, the deal applies only to deep-red districts where the winner of the GOP primary is certain to win the general election. Preventing the leadership from supporting Republicans who can win in swing districts would be very risky. And, all things considered, the MAGA 20 would prefer being in the majority (so they have the committee chairmanships) if it doesn't cost them anything. If nothing else, it reduces the chances they'll be tossed off their committees.
In short, on account of this deal, the next Republican caucus (Jan. 3, 2025 to Jan. 3, 2027) will very likely be more radical than the current one. Some of the 18 Republicans in Biden districts are likely to lose, removing some of the moderate voices from the caucus, and the new members who replace retirees in deep-red districts are likely to be more radical than their predecessors. With fewer moderates and more radicals, the caucus as a whole is likely to shift to the right. This is true even if the Democrats knock off five or more of the Biden 18 and get a majority. Then they will face an even angrier opposition. However, House rules don't give the minority any power at all, so in a certain sense that may not matter in the short run. Still, on Jan. 3, 2025, Jan. 3, 2027, or beyond, an increasingly radicalized Republican caucus could be in the majority and act accordingly.
McCarthy's promise is a big deal. In 2022, his super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) spent over $250 million on House races. Some of that was in deep-red districts, some in swing districts. If he hadn't spent heavily in open districts, the MAGA 20 group would surely have been bigger than it now is. For example, in TX-08, the CLF spent $700,000 to help Morgan Luttrell beat Christian Collins. Collins said he would side with MTG, demanded a nationwide audit of the 2020 election, and said Dr. Anthony Fauci should be in jail. In NY-23, another McCarthy-allied PAC spent $1 million to defeat Carl Paladino, who called Hitler the kind of leader we need today. He also said that Michelle Obama should return to being a male and go live with a gorilla in Africa. In MO-04, a McCarthy-allied PAC spent $500,000 to defeat state Sen. Rick Brattin, who sponsored a bill that would make it a crime to provide an abortion to an out-of-state woman. In Florida, McCarthy intervened in multiple districts to stop the craziest of the crazies. Also in Alabama and elsewhere.
If McCarthy keeps his promise—which is a big "if"—then all the money that would have otherwise gone to keeping the crazies from winning primaries will go to helping moderate Republicans win in swing districts. So the promise may help Republicans hold the House by diverting money from districts where a Republican was going to win no matter what, to districts that could go either way. However, McCarthy, a lifelong weasel, could double-cross the MAGA 20 and still keep his promise by having his "friends" tell donors not to donate to the CLF, but to some other super PAC run by an ally or to the NRCC. (V)