Jan.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Looking Backward: How Did the Readers Do?, Part II: Right-Wing Politicians and Media

Another entry as we take a look at how impressive the readers' (crystal) balls are. One can only hope that today's batting average is better than the one from the Trump predictions.

• D.R. in Old Harbor, AK: The Dominion lawsuit will loom over Fox and other right-wing media. This will impact the midterm elections in the Democrats' favor.
  
  Boldness: 2.5/5. Certainly possible, but this is broad enough that there are many ways it could come true. That's going to cost some boldness points.
  
  Final Score: 2 (Accuracy: 2, Boldness: 0). This one is very hard to judge. Certainly, the Dominion lawsuit is looming, so we'll give credit for that. But did it affect the midterms? Maybe, but there's no way to be sure. The most obvious impact would be in how Fox, et al. choose not to cover the news. And without inside information, we can't know what those decisions were, much less if they had a meaningful impact.
  
  
• J.I. in San Francisco, CA: Various lawsuits against Fox, OANN, etc. will result in at least one of these outlets having to shut down, and the others will have to tone down their style, further alienating whatever audience they still have. At least one of these networks' major hosts will leave for a Q-flavored online platform.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. This is most certainly not the way things are trending now, since the cable networks are currently in a race to the right fringe, while Q seems to be ebbing. So if this is right, it will be quite the prediction.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). OANN is on life support, but it's not dead yet. And the others are still chugging along nicely.
  
  
• N.S. in Milwaukee, WI: In Wisconsin, Governor Tony Evers (D) will win by only a few hundred votes, with Republicans disputing thousands of votes from Milwaukee. The mainstream media will frame the result as inconclusive, and the right-wing media will frame it as clear evidence of fraud, causing armed right-wingers to mobilize from around the country and march on Madison. A standoff with the National Guard will ensue, and right-wingers will consider it a training exercise for the 2024 election.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. There is so much in the way of specifics here that full boldness points will be earned if it all comes to pass.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). Evers won fairly comfortably, by modern standards, 51.2% to 47.8%.
  
  
• A.C. in Columbus, OH: The worst domestic terrorist attack in American history will take place, surpassing the Oklahoma City bombing. More than 250+ will be killed and many more wounded. As a result of this, Joe Biden's approval rating will skyrocket, just like George W. Bush after 9/11, because if there's one thing Joe does well, it's empathy. Further, it will be revealed the terrorist was directly inspired to act based on inflammatory rhetoric from right-wing media, and it will spark a serious national debate about the extreme partisanship of the media and how and if speech of "journalists" should be limited if it is: (1) knowingly and demonstrably false and (2) could be seen as incitement or otherwise presenting a clear and present danger.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. Again, it's so specific that if it comes to pass, full boldness points.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). Did not happen, thank goodness. Incidentally, while this is a perfectly valid prediction, we decided last year that we don't want to be in the business of predicting large-scale and/or violent death. So, we are not going to run predictions in this vein going forward.
  
  
• J.F. in Fort Worth, TX: The disastrous 2022 midterms will usher many new Republicans into Congress, almost all of whom will make Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) seem reserved and intellectual in comparison.
  
  Boldness: 5/5. We think this is pretty unlikely. First, the ultra-right districts, the kinds that produce Greenes and Boeberts, already have sitting representatives. Second, we almost cannot conceive of someone who makes that duo seem reserved and intellectual. Well, unless Mike Lindell gets elected to the House.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). There were a few nutters elected this cycle, but we've seen no evidence they are nuttier than Greene, Boebert, etc. Now, if you had written "someone who makes that duo seem ethical and honest," then we would have given you points due to the election of Rep. "George Santos" (R-NY).
  
  
• S.B. in New Castle, DE: The fringe conservatives will move beyond Trump and begin to coalesce around another man who is more politically savvy in messaging to a broader audience.
  
  Boldness: 3.5/5. Maybe, but Donald Trump is like the comic cat Garfield in numerous ways. And one of those is that he seems to have nine lives. So, we think this is fairly bold.
  
  Final Score: 8.5 (A: 5, B: 3.5). We think this is on the mark. It's true that the base is still on board the S.S. Trump, but a lot of the fringy, outspoken types have transferred to the S.S. DeSantis.
  
  
• K.E. in San Bernardino, CA: Due to his handling of coronavirus resurgences, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will lose re-election.
  
  Boldness: 3.5/5. Given his record and Florida's relatively even partisan split, it could happen. But it's the less likely outcome.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). Nope. He easily beat Crist. And given how loyal Florida Republicans seem to be, he might well have beaten Christ, had he been on the ballot.
  
  
• S.N. in Santa Clara, CA: Many Republican states passed election laws to allow the legislature, the state elections office, or some other designated entity to review and change the results of an election. At least one state will use their law to try and change an election outcome in 2022.
  
  Boldness: 3/5. They are certainly plotting, planning, and scheming—often openly. But this is not going to be easy to execute. We'll have some commentary on that matter soon.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). There was shockingly little of this sort of thing in 2022.
  
  
• A.B. in Wendell, NC: GOP chicanery will cost Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) his seat.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. This is a more specific version of the previous prediction, we would say, and so deserves a little more boldness credit.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). Actually, it was the opposite. Republican tomfoolery (i.e., nominating Herschel Walker) saved Warnock's seat.
  
  
• W.V. in Hemet, CA: Some Republicans will flip on immigration... after the midterms, due to the basic pressure on the U.S. economy: not enough workers.
  
  Boldness: 4/5. It could happen, but it would be a major repudiation of Trumpism.
  
  Final Score: 0 (A: 0, B: 0). This hasn't happened. It still could, we suppose, but it hasn't yet.

By our count, that's 10.5/120, for a batting average of .087. The running tally is 23.5/240, for a running batting average of .097. That's not even good enough to make the Pirates, though the Oakland A's remain a possibility. Some categories are easier to predict than others, so we expect that average to improve next week. (Z)