Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Can the Democrats Pick Up Any Senate Seats in 2024?

As we have written many times, the Democrats are playing defense in the Senate in 2024, with 23 seats up, including three vulnerable incumbents, in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, all deep red states. But are there any races where, under the right circumstances, they could be playing offense?

Maybe ask Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who said: "If you're a Democrat, after Donald Trump, there's no Republican in the country you want to beat more than me." For once, Cruz nailed it. Not only is he the senator Democrats despise most, but he is also the senator his Republican colleagues despise the most. But only one of them, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), gets to vote in Texas elections and although he would probably vote against Cruz in a primary, in a general election, he would probably prefer Cruz to a Democrat in order to get a majority.

Cruz is also the easiest target of the sitting Republican senators running for reelection. Beto O'Rourke came within 3 points of beating him in 2018 and the Democrats have an equally strong candidate in Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) this time. Allred brought in more cash in Q2 than Cruz did. Also, expect to hear about the huge winter storm in Feb. 2021 when the power went out in parts of Texas and people were freezing—except for Cruz and his family because they were off in sunny Cancún.

Next easiest is Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). Scott's Achilles heel is the platform he drew up for his brief imaginary presidential run, which never got off the ground. Among other points it would have terminated Social Security and Medicare (along with all other federal laws) unless Congress specifically renewed them every 5 years. Turns out there are a lot of seniors in Florida who might not be so keen on that. Those are the voters Democrats will target. Like Cruz, Scott is widely disliked by the other Republican senators. He tried (unsuccessfully) to topple Mitch McConnell in 2021. McConnell didn't appreciate that and neither did his friends. Unlike Cruz and Scott, McConnell is a team player and the other Republican senators respect him for that.

The third, and least likely target, of the top three, is Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO). He is arrogant and cowardly at the same time. The video of him running away on Jan. 6 makes good campaign material for the Democrats. The problem is that Missouri is quite red and he will be very tough to unseat, but other states (Mississippi, North Dakota, Tennessee, etc.) are even worse when it comes to Democrats winning elections. (V)

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