Jun.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Political Winners and Losers from the Debt Deal

The manufactured debt-ceiling crisis is now behind us and the United States will not default on its debt. Whew! Now on to the politics of it all. Who were the winners and losers? The Hill has an article about this, with which we mostly agree. First the winners, then the losers.

• Kevin McCarthy: The House Speaker came out of the crisis looking good. The Freedom Caucus tried to tie his hands and it didn't work. He could have kowtowed to them but he didn't, choosing instead to work with moderate Democrats. This fight was a really important one for both McCarthy and the FC and he clearly bested his foes. This could well establish a pattern now in which he works with moderates of both parties to get things done, completely sidelining the FC. Any of its members could yet make a motion to vacate the chair, but the problem is that there is no other Republican who can get 218 votes for speaker.
  
  
• Joe Biden: The president initially said you don't negotiate with hostage takers and in the end did exactly that, but he would have had to do it on the budget anyway, so the negotiation just came earlier than expected. On content, he had to give up a few things the Democrats wanted, but surprisingly little, and he kept the Freedom Caucus from getting anything on its wish list except taking some money from IRS, which the Democrats could restore next time they get the trifecta. Most Democrats in both chambers voted for the bill, so Biden didn't take a big hit among Democrats. This whole incident could strengthen his argument in 2024. He will claim that he was elected to bring sanity back to the country and to work with the Republicans to get things done, not to carry out Bernie's program. He could use the debt-ceiling bill as evidence of carrying out his promise.
  
  
• Joe Manchin: For years, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has been trying to get approval for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a 300-mile natural gas pipeline through the heart if Appalachia. The debt-ceiling bill gave him that approval. It also includes permitting reform, something he also badly wants. Now he will have something to show the voters in 2024. He will have his toughest fight ever next year facing Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) and can show that his seniority and clout in the Senate can bring the bacon home, something that Justice won't be able to claim. His pitch could be: "Do you want results or just make a pointless statement?"
  
  
• Garret Graves and Patrick McHenry: Although McCarthy is getting the credit for negotiating the deal, the actual Republican negotiators were Reps. Garret Graves (R-LA) and Patrick McHenry (R-NC). They got the deal done and are likely to have bright futures in Republican politics. There is already talk about one of them being a future House leader or speaker.
  
  
• Mitch McConnell: Senate Minority McConnell Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) kept his powder dry and stayed out of the debt-ceiling fight, letting McCarthy and his team do all the heavy lifting. He certainly wasn't damaged in any way by the result and he didn't make any enemies in the process, the way McCarthy did. We question whether this makes him a winner, though. We think he was not really a winner but also not a loser.
  

• The Freedom Caucus: The House Freedom Caucus turned out to be a paper tiger. It made a lot of noise but in the end demonstrated that it had no power at all. McCarthy got what he wanted—a deal—and the FC was powerless to stop him. You can be sure that McCarthy is fully aware of this and is not likely to pay the FC much heed going forward.
  
  
• Progressives: Like the Freedom Caucus, progressive Democrats didn't get anything. In fact, they actively oppose a number of things in the deal, especially Manchin's pipeline and new work requirements for food stamp recipients. They also opposed the permitting reform, which will make it possible for future energy projects to move forward faster. The whole show demonstrated to everyone in D.C. that when push comes to shove, they don't really have a lot of power and can be safely ignored.
  

While it is better to be a winner than a loser, it is still 17 months to the election. That is plenty of time for everyone to forget who won and who lost this round since there will be lots of new rounds in the months ahead. In the long run, we don't think these victories and losses will be terribly significant, except perhaps for Biden. It helps to be able to give a speech to the whole country where you brag about what you've done. (V)