Dem 51
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GOP 49
image description Tracking Poll, June 2023, Senate Edition

Last month, we added a second tracking poll to our presidential poll, asking readers to weigh in on the Senate. To start, here are the 10 seats readers think are most likely to flip next November (seats are color-coded based on which party the holder caucuses with):

State Current Holder May Rank
West Virginia Joe Manchin (D) 1
Montana Jon Tester (D) 2
Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) 3
Arizona Kyrsten Sinema (I) 4
Texas Ted Cruz (R) 5
Florida Rick Scott (R) 6
Nevada Jacky Rosen (D) 7
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (D) 8
Pennsylvania Bob Casey (D) 9
California Open (Dianne Feinstein, D) 10

We also asked readers to guess how many seats the Democrats would hold once the dust has settled next November. The low guess was 28 (second lowest was 43), the high guess was 60, the average guess was 49.71 and the most common guess was 50.

And the "question of the month" was: "How many days will it take to resolve the debt ceiling crisis?" The low guess there was 1 day, the high guess was 100 days, the average guess was 31.24 days and the most common guess was 31 days. Relative to the launch date of the survey, 31 days works out to June 2. The bill was passed by the Senate on June 1, and was signed into law on June 3. So, the wisdom of the crowd was pretty much on the mark.

The "question of the month" for this month is: Counting from June 7, how many days until Donald Trump is indicted for the Mar-a-Lago documents?

The ballot is here! (Z)

This item appeared on Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.                     State polls                     All Senate candidates