Jun.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

What Might a New York Gerrymander Look Like?

After the North Carolina Supreme Court threw out a highly gerrymandered map, the Democrats let out a sigh of relief. But it was not to last. After the composition of the North Carolina Supreme Court changed in the Nov. 2022 election, the new Supreme Court simply threw out the decision of the previous court to allow a new gerrymandered map. Why? Because they can.

The New York state legislature has taken keen note of this development and may try to repeat it. It also drew a highly gerrymandered map, this time to favor the Democrats, but the state's highest court, the Court of Appeals, threw it out. Now there has been a change in membership in the Court of Appeals—in a direction more favorable to the Democrats. And indeed, Democrats are talking about creating a new map to counter the North Carolina one. Just in case anyone thinks that the courts are neutral arbiters who base their decisions on the law and the Constitution, wake up. This is the 21st century.

David Wasserstein, of The Cook Political Report, has played a bit with Dave's Redistricting Website to see what the New York legislature might do now. He came up with a map that is not as aggressive as the original map, which might give plausible deniability to the Court of Appeals if they approved it, but could still net the Democrats five or six seats, thus balancing out North Carolina. This is not to say that the New York legislature will use his map, but it shows what they could do. And after what happened in North Carolina, the Republicans don't have much of a case complaining if the Democrats do it since they did it first.

Wasserstein's hypothetical map is shown and discussed here (note: paywall). Let's start with the map. The full state is on the left and an enlarged part for New York City is on the right:

The Republican seats that the map goes after are those of Reps. "George Santos" (NY-03) and Anthony D'Esposito (NY-04) on Long Island, those of Reps. Mike Lawler (NY-17) and Marc Molinaro (NY-19) in the Hudson Valley, and that of Brandon Williams (NY-22) near Syracuse. It doesn't go after Nicole Malliotakis (NY-11), since that would really be pushing the envelope and might cause the Court of Appeals to kill the whole thing. In the original map the Democrats went after her and drew a map that would have made Elbridge Gerry blush and that did make the Court of Appeals say "No!"

Here is a rundown of the various seats the Democrats are going to have to think hard about as they whip up a potential gerrymander:

• NY-01 (Nick LaLota): The Democrats could try for this one, but LaLota beat a well-funded Democrat, Bridget Fleming, by 12 points. It is probably a bridge too far and would complicate taking over the nearby NY-03 and NY-04 districts. So probably they would leave LaLota alone.
  
  
• NY-03 ("George Santos"): "Santos" won't be the Republican candidate next time. There is no way he could win the GOP primary. The Democrats could ditch parts of Long Island, jump the Long Island Sound, and include parts of Democratic Rye, Mamaroneck, and New Rochelle in Westchester County. It would be weird, but weirder maps have passed muster. Former representative Tom Suozzi (D) wants his old job back, and the Democrats could help him by throwing in southeast Westchester County to turn a Biden+8 district into a Biden+21 district he could easily win.
  
  
• NY-04 (Anthony D'Esposito): Former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D) is going for a rematch against D'Esposito again. He won 52% to 48% in 2022. The new map removes heavily Jewish Orthodox Lawrence-Cedarhurst and replaces it with heavily Black and Latino Westbury. That could do the job for Gillen.
  
  
• NY-11 (Nicole Malliotakis): In 2022, Democrat Max Rose was crushed by Malliotakis 62%-38% due to the Trumpiness of Staten Island. Fixing this would lead to a dreadful map that might make the Court of Appeals barf. Probably not worth trying. Keeping the current map in this area would also help newly elected Rep. Dan Goldman (D) in NY-10, who was the lead lawyer in the first impeachment of Donald Trump. A lot of Democrats see him as a hero, so conceding NY-11 and helping Goldman a bit is likely in the cards.
  
  
• NY-17 (Mike Lawler): Lawler knocked off DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney last time. In Wasserstein's map, the Jewish Orthodox parts of Rockland County are removed from the district and replaced with White Plains and Scarsdale, which are extremely blue. When (V) was growing up in White Plains, a Democrat couldn't get elected deputy assistant dogcatcher. Then things changed and Nita Lowey (D) represented White Plains in the House for 32 years, finally retiring as chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee. This change would require Rep. Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) to absorb some Trump territory, which progressives would definitely not like. But if Albany Democrats want to take back the House, this might be needed. NY-17 is going to have one hell of a primary no matter what. Former representative Mondaire Jones, who likes to go district shopping, may run here after losing in the NY-10 primary to Dan Goldman last year. But Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's sister, Liz Whitmer Gereghty, a long-time resident of the district, is already in. (Note to Liz: Drop the Gereghty; starting now, you are Liz Whitmer.)
  
  
• NY-18 (Pat Ryan): In a special election in Aug. 2022, Democrat Ryan won the seat and held it. In 2022, Lee Zeldin ran for governor and lost. His running mate, Alison Esposito is running in NY-18. She is a gay veteran of the NYPD. The map sheds a bit of rural area and picks up liberal Peekskill shifting the district from Biden+8 to Biden+11.
  
  
• NY-19 (Marc Molinaro): This was a close race in 2022, with Molinaro winning 50.8%-49.2%. Democrat Michelle Hinchey, a state senator and daughter of former representative Maurice Hinchey (who held the seat for 20 years), may run and Democrats could give her a little boost here.
  
  
• NY-22 (Brandon Williams): In the past, moderate Republicans have held this seat, but in 2022, conservative Texas transplant Williams won the GOP primary and the seat. With minor alterations, the district could be made unwinnable for a conservative Republican. If it becomes very blue, plenty of Syracuse Democrats will get interested in running for it.
  

Again, this is not a draft map, but merely an exercise Wasserstein did to see what the Democrats could do if they decided to change the map this year. Since they have the trifecta and a friendlier Court of Appeals, the temptation to monkey with the map will be very great. (V)