Jun.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

New Poll of GOP Primary Voters Has Trump at 61% and DeSantis at 23%

CBS had YouGov do a poll of likely Republican primary voters. It was in the field June 7-10, but after Donald Trump's federal indictment was unsealed, YouGov recontacted about 75% of the respondents, so most of the people polled knew about the new indictment. Here are some of the key results:

• Desired GOP nominee: Donald Trump 61%, Ron DeSantis 23%, Tim Scott 4%, Mike Pence 4%, Nikki Haley 3%
• Was the indictment politically motivated?: 76% yes
• Were the documents a national security threat? 12% yes
• How will the indictment change your view of Trump? 14% for the better, 7% for the worse, 61% no change
• If convicted, should Trump be allowed to be president? 80% yes, 20% no
• Top issues: Inflation (90%), lower taxes (78%), ban abortion nationwide (29%), limit transgender rights (26%)
• If Trump can't be the nominee what do you want? 74% someone similar to Trump, 26% different from Trump
• What should Trump talk about? His platform (96%), investigations against him (39%), 2020 election (32%)
• Should the Democrats run Joe Biden? 14% yes, 86% no

Again, these are the results for Republicans, not the electorate at large. It appears that they are solidly behind Trump and want no substitutes, even if he is convicted of felonies.

While we don't know if things will change if he is convicted, the fact that 80% of the respondents say he should be president anyway, even if convicted, suggests that one or more convictions won't change many Republican minds. What YouGov didn't do is ask independents if they think Trump should be allowed to be president if he is convicted. That is an interesting and important question as registered Republicans make up only 35-40% of the electorate.

On a couple of questions, YouGov separated out MAGA Republicans from other Republicans. One question was how they wanted to govern. Here are the results:

Another question was about campaign strategy:

It is clear here that the MAGA Republicans are much more right-wing and aggressive than the non-MAGA Republicans. This could give Joe Biden an opening by trying to appeal to the non-MAGA Republicans by saying they are decent people, unlike the deplorables—oh, no, wait, that was someone else's pitch. But worded carefully, it could peel off some of the moderate Republicans who really dislike Trump, Jim Jordan, and the rest.

ABC/Ipsos also released a poll yesterday. It showed that 48% of Americans think Trump should have been charged and 35% think he should not have been charged. Among Democrats, 91% think the charges are serious, among independents it is 63%, and among Republicans it is 38%. (V)