Mar.01

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

A Hotfoot for Lightfoot

It would seem that the majority of Chicagoans are feeling burned by their choice of Lori Lightfoot as their mayor 4 years ago. And so, more than 80% of those who showed up to vote in yesterday's primary decided to return the favor, telling Lightfoot "thanks, but no thanks" when it comes to a second term for her. That's the first time that's happened to a Chicago mayor in 40 years.

Here are the results with 95%+ of the vote in:

The AP and other outlets decreed that Vallas and Johnson would advance to the runoff around 10:00 local time last night, and about an hour later, Lightfoot conceded.

Vallas, who ran an "Is he actually a Democrat?" campaign of the sort that would make Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) proud, enters the final round of voting in the strongest position, having outpaced all the other contenders by 13% of the vote or more. He's going to be courting older voters, centrist Democrats and Republicans, and is going to hope that the latter turn out in large numbers to support a "lesser of two evils" sort of candidate. Given that Vallas' central issue is public safety/crime, and that his opponent is Black, politics-watchers in the Windy City expect there to be some none-too-subtle racial undertones to the remaining weeks of campaigning.

Johnson is a lefty; he really needs most of the voters who backed the much more centrist Lightfoot and the somewhat more centrist García to migrate to his banner. That is well within the realm of possibility, particularly if Vallas (or his backers) decide to indulge in some racist dog whistles. For what it's worth, there have been three polls of what was then a hypothetical runoff matchup, and Johnson led in one of those by 1 point, while Vallas led in the others by 14 points. None of the three pollsters is particularly good, however, so don't put too much stock in their projections.

Needless to say, we are not especially dialed in to Chicago politics, but we have readers who are, and we heard from a number of them yesterday (largely before the results were in). Here are some of their comments:

• G.C. in Chicago, IL: On my dinner break as a election judge. In haste! Will be surprised if the turnout is more than 35% of the city. The only given is that there will be a runoff. Lightfoot is by no means a lock for anything.
  
  The nightmare for progressives like me is that the runoff will end up being Lightfoot against Vallas and we will be caught between a rock and a hard place! Ranked Choice Voting sure would be handy.
  
  Who says the old Chicago Ward bosses are dead when the occasional tan-trenchcoat-clad, Fedora-wearing goons come to "check on" our polling site?!
  
  
• B.B. in Chicago, IL: I will be surprised if Lori Lightfoot advances to the runoff. She was elected 4 years ago with a broad constituency that included the "lakefront liberals" (of which I am one). Her handling of the COVID crisis was reasonable and will not be what causes her to lose. Rather it is a combination of her failure to successfully address the rapid rise in crime and lawlessness during and after the pandemic—everything from elevated murder rates to increases in petty crimes like catalytic converter thefts or even smoking on the "L." She also didn't follow through on campaign promises to run a more transparent administration than her predecessor Rahm Emanuel or to allow the election of the local school board rather than its selection by the mayor alone.
  
  I don't know of any fellow North Siders who plan to vote for her reelection, but there is no consensus candidate to replace her. Paul Vallas will get a lot of votes because he has run a tough-on-crime campaign and is the only white candidate (I'm sorry to believe that will be a factor). Other voters will choose either the more progressive Brandon Johnson or the moderate Chuy García, who forced Rahm into a runoff in 2015. The most recent poll seems to show Vallas defeating anyone else in the runoff, so that's where I'd lay my money. For the record, I didn't vote for any of them.
  
  
• P.B. in Chicago, IL: I live in downtown Chicago, a very white area north of the Loop. I was a big fan of Lori when she was elected and during the early years of COVID. I thought she did a very good job of shutting things down to prevent the spread.
  
  I also voted for her twice back then (there was a runoff) because she was promising an independent board to watch the Chicago Police, one of the most corrupt police departments in the country (and the DOJ feels so, too). I thought she would come in and crack down on the CPD; but she basically did the opposite. She covered up for them several times including when they broke into the wrong woman's house and handcuffed her naked for a long time.
  
  I happily voted for Brandon Johnson this time. I really hope Vallas doesn't win. He is even closer to the CPD and the very corrupt Fraternal Order of Police. He has also cozied up to anti-LGBTQ groups as well.
  
  
• D.M. in Chicago, IL: Regarding the Chicago election, you are right on point in saying that Lori Lightfoot may not even make it to the runoff. I would go further to say that she likely won't. She is deeply unpopular in Chicago.
  
  Rather than being a centrist, as she seems on paper, she has managed to alienate both the left and right wings in the city with what both sides would consider to be extreme policies on opposite ends of the spectrum. She lost the right with her early COVID lockdown policies, but she then lost the Left with her anti-union approach to the recent teacher strikes. Plus, she seemed to completely abandon the aforementioned COVID policies prematurely, forcing children back into schools long before it was considered safe to do so, sacrificing her credibility on that front. It's left her with few friends among the voters. What support she does still have is likely due to her incumbency and nothing else.
  
  I'm nowhere near an expert on political matters, but the polling I've seen shows Brandon Johnson trending upward into second place, aided no doubt from several key progressive endorsements. I expect the runoff to be between him and Paul Vallas. If the other center-left or left-wing candidates' votes mostly go to him, I think he even has a shot at winning (though that is an admittedly higher hill to climb).
  
  
• A.W. in Chicago, IL: Chicagoan of 27 years here. First, I'll acknowledge that my experience of the city is a bit of a Northside lefty bubble, but I think you're overestimating Lightfoot's popularity. Incumbency might not be enough to get her into the runoff.
  
  I fear that you're right about Vallas. As a friend of mine put it, "He's wrapped up enough of the 'White people who would never admit they're actually Republicans' vote to make it to the runoff."
  
  Brandon Johnson has a great ground game and has seen a real surge these last weeks since early voting started. But I've also heard a lot of my friends say, "I'm voting for Brandon in the general, but I'll vote for Chuy in the runoff." Not realizing, I guess, that Chuy might need their vote to make the runoff. Anyway, those two seem to be splitting the progressive vote—perhaps in a way that ends up depriving them both of a slot in the next round.
  
  If either of Johnson or Chuy ends up in the runoff, I'd give them a very good chance against either Vallas or Lightfoot.
  
  If it's Vallas vs. Lightfoot, I'll hold my nose and give her another term, and I expect I'm not alone in that.
  
  
• P.R. in Chicago, IL: I have lived in Chicago for almost 30 years, and here is my take on the election.
  
  Many of us voted for Lori Lightfoot 4 years ago over Toni Preckwinkle. The impression was that Lightfoot was the fresher, better candidate. More authentic, honest, especially as compared to Preckwinkle, who as Cook County Board president was responsible for our very delayed property tax bills. However, as you pointed out, crime has risen and seems to be out of control. But there are two local events that really turned people, especially in the northern part of the city, against her.
  
  First, the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) strike of 2019, which Lightfoot managed horribly, and followed soon after by a COVID-related work stoppage by Chicago Teachers Union (CTU). This did not sit well with anyone. Second, the infamous incident of a woman, Anjanette Young, who was forced to stand naked in front of police in her own home after police mistakenly forced their way in. Although Lightfoot isn't directly responsible for the police, her comments were to the effect that she knew nothing about it. It was later shown that, in fact, she did know all about it and was lying to the people of Chicago.
  
  She basically came off during her tenure as a slimy lawyer, one who refuses to take ownership. Compared to Rahm Emmanuel or Richard Daley, that is not how Chicago likes their politicians. We may not like their polices in certain areas, but they sure own up to them. By way of comparison, Rahm also had nasty CTU strike to deal with. And after it, he owned up to it and said he should have handled it differently. Lightfoot never did that. She is perceived as self-serving and ineffective.
  
  I believe that Lightfoot will not advance to the runoff. Paul Vallas is in first place, followed by Brandon Johnson. Lightfoot will finish in 3rd place.
  
  
• D.K. in Chicago, IL: In Illinois and in Chicago in particular, unions are a major player in politics. Brandon Johnson has the endorsement of the teachers' unions as well as SEIU. He also has the endorsement of multiple Democratic Socialist city council members (the Democratic Socialists have been flexing their muscle since the 2019 election, when they elected several council members).
  
  Willie Wilson organized the "Willie Wilson Party" as a vehicle for his independent run for U.S. Senate in 2020. Before that, he made an unsuccessful attempt for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. He is a well-known businessman in the African-American community—known for his food and gas giveaways—and was the top African-American vote-getter in his prior mayoral runs. He also received the support of local Republican organizations in prior mayoral runs. He is making a play for the conservative law-and-order vote (he said that police should be able to hunt down criminals "like rabbits"). How much he will be able to siphon from Paul Vallas remains to be seen.

Thanks, folks!

We would very much like to draw some larger significance from this result, but to do so would be B.S. It's an off-year election in a city whose demographics do not mirror the national electorate in any meaningful way. Could the fact that the good people of Chicago decided to "throw the bums out" presage a similar sentiment in 2024? Maybe, but Lightfoot clearly had some liabilities that are specific to her and, beyond that, there's an awful lot of time and campaigning between now and then. Plus, it would be hard to know which bums would be targeted. The bums who run the House? The ones who run the Senate? Both? The bum who is in the White House? The bum who was in the White House? The crystal ball, in short, is murky.

What we can say is that the days when "Mayor of Chicago" was basically a lifetime appointment, particularly if your last name was Daley, are clearly over. (Z)