Dem 51
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GOP 49
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How Will an Indictment Change Trump's Standing with the Voters?

A question that is on the mind of many people is: "What will be the political fallout if Trump is indicted?" Nobody knows, of course, but we may begin to learn in a few weeks. Almost everyone expects a short-term bump for him and lots of money coming in, but the long-term effect is hard to gauge. The other Nate (Cohn) who normally deals in numbers, data, and polls, is trying to put together what he knows and make an educated guess of what might happen. Here is an outline of what he is thinking:

Cohn also notes that how Trump responds to the indictment(s) could also be important. If Bragg's only charge is failing to report an election contribution in kind, nobody is going to understand that, especially if his defense is that he paid hush money to Stormy Daniels simply to keep Melania from finding out. If the charge includes claiming a $420,000 deduction for fake legal fees and thus committing tax fraud, more people will understand that and may disapprove. Also, will Trump actively try to rally protesters? Will they get violent? These are only the known unknowns, but they are all we have now. (V)

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