Dem
51
GOP
49
We had a bunch of stuff to think about in order to make our tracking-poll concept useful and interesting, which is why it went on hiatus for a short while. However, we've figured everything out, and so it will make its return today (and tomorrow), and will run monthly henceforth.
One of the big decisions, as implied by what you already read, is that we're going to expand it and split it into two; there will be a Senate tracking poll and an presidential tracking poll. Each will have three questions each time; the first two will be static and the third will vary.
The first question in each Senate poll will ask you to rank 1-2-3 the three seats you think are most likely to switch parties in 2024. The second will ask you to make your best guess as to how many seats the Democrats will end up controlling. The third, this month, asks when you think the debt ceiling situation (see above) will be resolved.
As a reminder, before you vote, here is a quick list of Senate seats that might plausibly be considered in danger in 2024. They are colored based on which party the current holder caucuses with, and are presented in alphabetical order by state:
| State | Occupant | Reason It Might Flip |
| Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema | Three-way race with Sinema, a Democrat, and a Republican |
| California | Open (Dianne Feinstein) | Feinstein is retiring |
| Florida | Rick Scott | Scott looked at his state's aged population, decided to come out against Social Security |
| Maryland | Open (Ben Cardin) | Cardin is retiring |
| Michigan | Open (Debbie Stabenow) | Stabenow is retiring |
| Montana | Jon Tester | Red state, blue candidate |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen | She's only moderately popular in a swingy state |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | The state has veered hard-red in the past decade |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey | Swingy state, and Republicans want this one badly |
| Texas | Ted Cruz | Cruz is an a**hole |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Manchin's bag of tricks might finally be empty |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | She's only moderately popular in a swingy state |
If you would like to participate, the ballot is here. The presidential version is on tap for tomorrow. (Z)