Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Lake Is Maneuvering for a Senate Run

Speaking of Trumpers, Kari Lake is doing all the things she needs to do in order to launch a bid for the U.S. Senate next year. In particular, she's had two meetings with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Don't read too much into that, since the NRSC takes meetings with just about any candidate who asks for one. Actually, since the NRSC de facto answers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and since he knows that Lake is damaged goods, the NRSC almost certainly doesn't want her to run. But they have to make nice in case she does, since she would likely get the nomination with or without their help.

If Lake does get in, Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer are going to be very pleased, indeed. Some sizable chunk of Arizonans, maybe 40% or 45%, like Lake very much. Most of the remaining population is frightened to death of letting her get anywhere close to real power. Our guess is that if it's Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema (I) vs. Ruben Gallego (D), that nearly all the Democrats, independents, and Never Trump Republicans will just vote for whichever non-Lake candidate is up in the polls. That would be a repeat, of sorts, of the 2006 Connecticut Senate election, where a sizable number of Republicans decided they'd rather use their votes to help a very moderate Democrat (Joe Lieberman) win, as opposed to wasting their votes on the Republican (Alan Schlesinger) and possibly letting an actual liberal (Ned Lamont) take the seat. A Lake nomination is not a guarantee that a non-Republican keeps the seat, but it's certainly the best chance for a non-Republican to do so, unless Sarah Palin relocates from Alaska.

Meanwhile, we must point out that Arizona is one of the states with a resign-to-run law. So, if Lake does intend to mount a campaign, she will have to resign the governor's seat she "won" last year. Who wants to be the one to tell her? (Z)

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