May17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Results Are In

Yesterday was probably the biggest Election Day of the year, save for Nov. 7. On the whole, things went about as expected. Here are the main storylines:

• Kentucky Governor: There was no doubt that Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) would be renominated by his party for another term, and he was, taking 91.3% of the vote on that side of the contest. On the Republican side, there was talk that Kelly Craft had emerged as a serious challenger to state AG Daniel Cameron, thanks to a bunch of money and high-profile endorsements. Ha! Cameron took 47.7% of the vote in the 12-way race. Craft not only failed to make Cameron sweat, she didn't even finish in second place. Her 17.2% of the vote trailed the 21.7% collected by state Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles.
  
  As we've noted several times, Cameron is Black and very Trumpy. Beshear is white and very moderate. He's also the most popular Democratic governor in the nation, by approval rating. If you wish to read the primary election tea leaves, roughly 300,000 people showed up to cast a Republican ballot yesterday, whereas only 200,000 showed up to cast a Democratic ballot. On the other hand, there were no competitive races on the Democratic side, and Beshear's dominance of that contest means that he actually collected more total votes (176,673) than Cameron did (144,415). So, that would seem to be a wash. There's been one poll of the general election race, and it had Beshear up nine points, 49% to 40%. However, that was way back in January, when Cameron would have been considerably less well-known. Our guess is that Beshear is probably the favorite here, but that's really just gut feel more than anything else.
  
  
• Pennsylvania State House: The Democrats will retain control of the Pennsylvania Assembly. There were actually two open seats on the ballot yesterday, but there was no doubt that the Republicans would hold PA-SD-108, and they did, with Michael Stender (R) easily defeating Trevor Finn (D), 61.0% to 35.5%. The question was what would happen in PA-SD-163. As it turns out, it was a laugher, with Heather Boyd (D) trouncing Katie Ford (R) by more than 20 points, 60.1% to 38.7%. Not too surprising; in our general experience, it's not too hard to leave a Ford in the dust. Anyhow, the Democrats will hold a slim advantage in the Assembly, 102-101. Of course, readers of this site will know the technical term for a party that holds a slim advantage in a legislative chamber. They are called "the majority." It's only one seat, but it's the one that really, really matters. And given that the central issue in the Boyd-Ford campaign was abortion access, and that campaign was waged in the suburbs, and that Boyd won in a landslide, there might be a silver lining in this for Republicans, who won't be able to put an abortion referendum on next year's ballot. At least, not through legislative action.
  
  
• Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Patricia McCullough (R), the judge who gave Donald Trump his only favorable "stop the steal" ruling, was defeated in her primary by Carolyn Carluccio, a moderate, 53.5% to 46.5%. As a reminder, Trumpy candidate Doug Mastriano lost bigly last year, and so too did Trumpy candidate Mehmet Oz. Perhaps there is a lesson here for the Pennsylvania GOP. On the Democratic side, the candidate will be Daniel McCaffery. We won't pretend to know anything about the dynamics of Pennsylvania judicial politics, and there's been no polling of course, so all we can tell you is that there were more Democratic votes cast yesterday overall (1,006,230 to 816,038) and that McCaffrey also collected more votes than Carluccio did (600,082 to 436,866).
  
  
• Philadelphia Mayor: The city of Philadelphia is something like 90% Democratic, and hasn't elected a Republican mayor since Harry S. Truman was in the White House. So, the Democratic primary is the de facto general election. That means that the city's next mayor is former city councilwoman Cherelle Parker (D), who beat out eight other candidates. She will go on to crush David Oh (R), who ran uncontested, in the general election and will become Philadelphia's first Black woman mayor, and fourth Black mayor overall. We wouldn't be doing our job, however, if we did not point out that the last Black mayor of Philadelphia was a Nutter. Specifically, Michael Nutter, who now teaches at Columbia University.
  
  
• Jacksonville Mayor: The city of Jacksonville held a mayoral runoff yesterday after no candidate managed to cross the 50% threshold in the first round of voting back in March. Coming out on top was Democrat Donna Deegan, who outpolled Republican Daniel Davis 52% to 48%. Davis, who leads the city's Chamber of Commerce had way more money, and a gaggle of prominent endorsements, including that of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). So, Davis was supposedly a heavy favorite. Not so much, as it turns out. Incidentally, Deegan is a former TV journalist and current activist for breast cancer research, and ran on a platform of women's bodily autonomy. Again, perhaps there is a lesson in there, somewhere.
  
  Before yesterday, Jacksonville was the largest city in America with a Republican mayor (it's #12). Now that honor goes to #14 Fort Worth. Overall, of the country's 25 largest cities, 21 now have Democratic mayors, two have independent mayors (San Antonio and Honolulu) and two have Republican mayors (Fort Worth and Oklahoma City).
  
  
• Not a Great Night for DeSantis: A lot of attention has been paid to Donald Trump's rather middling record when it comes to endorsements. He's very good at picking winners... when the result is not in doubt. He's rather less good at backing the right horse when the outcome is less obvious. And, as it turns out, Ron DeSantis may not have much in the way of coattails, either. He gave a strong endorsement to Kelly Craft in Kentucky, only to see her finish a distant third. And, as we note above, the Governor backed Daniel Davis in the Jacksonville mayoral race, only to see Davis upset. And this is a city where four of the last five mayors, covering 26 of the last 30 years, were Republicans. Perhaps there is a growing backlash to DeSantis' brand of Republicanism?

And that's the news on the elections front. The next interesting election is probably the Virginia state primaries on June 20. Well, unless we look beyond America's borders, in which case it's the Turkish runoff on May 28. (Z)