May22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Five Questions about DeSantis' Campaign

Ron DeSantis is expected to file the paperwork to run for president this week. A formal announcement will then follow within a couple of weeks at most. A bid by DeSantis raises at least five questions, as follows:

• Trump: The biggest question of all is how hard DeSantis will attack Donald Trump. Pretending that the obvious frontrunner doesn't even exist is a strange strategy. It is a given that Trump will savagely attack him once he is in. In fact, Trump is already savagely attacking DeSantis (more on this later this week). Will the Governor fight back? If so, how hard? So far, all he has said is that Trump is a loser, but that hasn't worked at all. Trump's base would clearly prefer voting for a guy they love even if he is going to lose rather than voting for a guy they dislike even if he might win. For much of Trump's base, it is about loving the candidate, not about winning. DeSantis doesn't understand this. For him, it is all about winning. He'll say whatever he has to say to win. Nothing he says means anything to him. He'll change on a dime if he has to, since he has no core beliefs. There is a great danger for him that the voters pick up on this.
  
  
• Campaigning: DeSantis hates retail campaigning. He doesn't like schmoozing with voters or donors. He doesn't like eating ethnic foods, even with his fingers. He doesn't like kissing babies. He doesn't even like addressing rallies. He would prefer that his campaign staff make up ads and run them on TV and the Internet without bothering him. That's how he won in Florida. That DOES. NOT. WORK. in Iowa or New Hampshire. There the voters want to meet and talk to each candidate personally two or three times before making a decision. His staff can tell him this until the pigs come home (in Iowa) but will he be able to fake it successfully? Every time he makes a mistake (e.g., refusing to eat a pork chop on a stick at the Iowa State Fair) it will be front page news all over the state. Reporters will be looking to trip him up. How well will he do outside his comfort zone?
  
  
• Donors: How will the big donors react to his candidacy? So far, DeSantis is all about the culture wars. But the big donors don't give a hoot about where the woke goes to die. Most of them don't give a rat's a** about who uses which bathroom or which pronouns. They don't even care about abortions. But they care a lot about a candidate's attitude toward business. Some of them also care about the war in Ukraine and are not big fans of Russia or communism. DeSantis' pro-Russia views could be a problem with the donors. Also, they care a lot about return on investment. Throwing money away on a candidate who can't win the presidency is not high on their to-do lists. At least one of his big donors, Ken Griffin, is having second thoughts about DeSantis on account of his remarks about Ukraine. What does DeSantis do when he discovers the big donors are pro-Ukraine and the base is pro-Russia? He's not used to this kind of problem. He'd better get used to it fast.
  
  
• The Culture Wars: DeSantis' whole persona is about the culture wars. The problem is that such a position doesn't really distinguish him from Trump and the other Republican primary candidates. All of them oppose abortion. All of them oppose critical race theory. All of them oppose trans women using the ladies' room. What makes him special? By making the culture wars the beginning and end of his platform, what will he do when the debate moderator says: "Raise your hand if you oppose abortions" and all of them do? Also, by making his candidacy all about the culture wars and nothing else, how will this play with independents in the general election? If general-election horse race polls show Biden beating him solidly in November, how will this affect Republican primary voters? In short, will DeSantis turn out to be a one-trick pony? And a not-that-special trick, at that?
  
  
• What if he wins the primary?: Suppose DeSantis narrowly wins the GOP primary and Trump says he was cheated. Will Trump go gentle into that good night? We have our doubts. Suppose Trump tells his supporters to stay home on Election Day. How will DeSantis handle that? Worse yet, how will DeSantis handle it if Trump decides to run as an independent, or on the Constitution Party ticket? (The Libertarian Party is unlikely to accept Trump because it has principles and he opposes all of them.)
  

Interesting questions, all of these. The answers will determine how well DeSantis does. Being high-profile isn't enough. In 2008, Rudy Giuliani thought it was. He learned quickly otherwise. That could easily be DeSantis' fate if he blows it on any of the above. (V)