Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Carroll Case Clearly Isn't Helping Joe Biden

Yesterday, we looked at the Donald Trump vs. Ron DeSantis polling before and after the E. Jean Carroll verdict. Now, let's take a look at the Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden polling. First, the five polls of the race completed since the jury's verdict came down on May 10:

Pollster Timespan Trump Biden Net
Morning Consult May 19-21 42% 42% EVEN
HarrisX/Harris Poll May 17-18 47% 40% Trump +7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 17 43% 44% Biden +1%
YouGov May 13-16 44% 42% Trump +2%
Premise May 12-15 44% 41% Trump +3%
Average   44% 41.8% Trump +2.2%

For comparison purposes, here are the last five polls taken before the verdict came down:

Pollster Timespan Trump Biden Net
YouGov May 5-8 43% 45% Biden +2%
Morning Consult May 5-7 42% 44% Biden +2%
ABC News/The Washington Post April 28-May 3 49% 43% Trump +6%
Premise April 27-May 1 45% 42% Trump +3%
Echelon Insights May 5-8 42% 47% Biden +5%
Average   44.2% 44.2% EVEN

As with yesterday's item, we chose registered voters rather than all adults when there was an option.

In the DeSantis comparison, Trump picked up about 5 points after the verdict. Here, he picked up about 2 points. These are similar gains, since the gap between Trump and DeSantis is so much greater than the gap between Trump and Biden. Because these variations are within the margin of error, we are not willing to say yet that the verdict helped Trump. But it clearly didn't hurt him in a meaningful way.

This does not mean it will not hurt him long-term, of course. A lot of people don't follow the news closely, and, we suspect, don't know the full story when it comes to E. Jean Carroll. That will change during the election campaign, especially if Trump loses to Carroll again. On top of that, it could turn out to be the case that the main effect of the Carroll verdict is not to covert Trump voters to Biden voters (or vice versa), but instead to motivate a disproportionate number of Democratic women to make sure to get to the polls in 2024. That wouldn't be captured by registered voter polls, particularly this far out. (Z)

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