Nov.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The House Is a Game of Inches

The nine-seat microscopic majority the Republicans currently have in the House will motivate them to go to the mat in 2024 to increase it. It will also motivate the Democrats to fight tooth and nail to pick up at least five seats. Not every seat is in play, but 87 seats are between R+5 and D+5. Any of those could flip under the right circumstances. Also, 18 Republicans are in districts Joe Biden won. Eleven of them are first termers, who don't have much of a brand. Five Democrats are in districts Donald Trump won. If Mike Johnson proves to be a Freedom Caucuser through and through, all of the Biden 18 and all 37 Republicans in swing (R+5 to D+5) districts will be lashed to him more tightly than Odysseus was lashed to the mast. In the near term, Johnson will have to make many decisions that put the Freedom Caucus on one side and much of his caucus and all the Democrats on the other. His legislative skill will be tested sorely.

In the end, three factors will determine which party controls the House on Jan. 3, 2025, as follows:

• Redistricting: The number of states where districts are changing mid-decade is unprecedented and reflects the feeling in both parties that they have to grasp at every straw. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report said: "We used to redistrict every 10 years, now we redistrict every 10 minutes." Last year the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that gerrymandering violated the state Constitution. A change in Court membership favoring the Republicans probably means that a map with 3-4 more Republican seats will pass muster. However, a change in membership of the New York Court of Appeals may mean that a new map in New York with 3-4 more Democratic seats could also pass muster. These may cancel each other out.
  
  In addition, maps in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and South Carolina have already been struck down as racial gerrymanders. There could be new maps in place there by 2024, but that is not certain. Republicans will appeal court decisions as long as they can. The situation in Ohio is also in flux.
  
  
• Candidate quality: As Mitch McConnell helpfully pointed out in the 2022 cycle, "candidate quality" matters. By this he meant that when the Republicans nominate crazy Trumpists, they often lose winnable elections. How much that will happen this cycle isn't clear yet. When the Republicans nominate people you wouldn't mind having live next door, like Reps. Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06), Zach Nunn (IA-03), Lori Chavez-Deremer (OR-05) and Jen Kiggans (VA-02), they can win. Who will Republicans nominate next year in key races?
  
  Ironically, Republicans were in the midst of a winning streak when then-speaker Kevin McCarthy was canned. McCarthy looked for winners and didn't care much about ideology. Mike Johnson doesn't have anywhere near as much knowledge of House districts as McCarthy and may have much more sympathy for loony Trumpists than McCarthy did. Although House Democrats also have a new leader, in at least a dozen districts they are going to run candidates who were hand-picked by Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi in 2022 and who barely lost then. They know how to campaign and have existing contacts and e-mail lists of donors. For example, Adam Frisch lost to Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) by 546 votes in 2022 and is now a national figure who is going to pull in money from all 50 states, not just Colorado. Democrats also have a few holes to fill, but Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is on much better terms with Pelosi than Johnson is with McCarthy and is much more inclined to accept her advice than Johnson is to accept McCarthy's advice, assuming McCarthy wants to give it at all.
  
  As of today, 14 House Democrats are calling it quits vs. only 7 House Republicans. But we are in prime quitting season, so that figure could change. Only five swing seats are currently open, all of them Democratic, but if vulnerable Republicans get an earful from constituents over the holidays, that could change.
  
  
• The top of the ticket: Coattails matter. Weak showings at the top of the ticket matter. Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, and Kathy Hochul in New York all pulled down their tickets in 2022. Turnout in 2024 is likely to be closer to 160 million vs. 112 million in 2022 and the impact downballot could vary strongly from state to state. The voters who sat out 2022 tend to be young nonwhite, noncollege, independents. In mostly white states, this marginal bunch could come out to vote for Trump. But in California and New York, which each have half a dozen close districts, it could favor the Democrats. Again keep the Biden 18 and Trump 5 in mind. These will be huge battlegrounds.

The Cook Political Report has just moved two districts to toss up, namely those of Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) and Jared Golden (D-ME), so that balances out. (V)