Dem 51
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GOP 49
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The House Is a Game of Inches

The nine-seat microscopic majority the Republicans currently have in the House will motivate them to go to the mat in 2024 to increase it. It will also motivate the Democrats to fight tooth and nail to pick up at least five seats. Not every seat is in play, but 87 seats are between R+5 and D+5. Any of those could flip under the right circumstances. Also, 18 Republicans are in districts Joe Biden won. Eleven of them are first termers, who don't have much of a brand. Five Democrats are in districts Donald Trump won. If Mike Johnson proves to be a Freedom Caucuser through and through, all of the Biden 18 and all 37 Republicans in swing (R+5 to D+5) districts will be lashed to him more tightly than Odysseus was lashed to the mast. In the near term, Johnson will have to make many decisions that put the Freedom Caucus on one side and much of his caucus and all the Democrats on the other. His legislative skill will be tested sorely.

In the end, three factors will determine which party controls the House on Jan. 3, 2025, as follows:

The Cook Political Report has just moved two districts to toss up, namely those of Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) and Jared Golden (D-ME), so that balances out. (V)

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