Nov.07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Today is Election Day

Odd years are, well, odd years... in politics. Today is Election Day and there is a modest amount of action. You just have to know where to look for it. Some of the contests to watch:

• Ohio's Issue 1: This is the most important election today. The results will definitely reverberate all the way to Nov. 5, 2024. Ohio voters will get a straight up-or-down vote on adding a provision to the state Constitution guaranteeing every woman's right to an abortion. There was a peculiar proxy vote in August on this and the de facto pro-choice side got 57% of the votes. Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and the entire Republican establishment has been campaigning fervently for "No on Issue 1." If the initiative passes, especially by a wide margin, DeWine & Co. will all have egg on their faces.
  
  More importantly, the vote will send a strong signal as to whether abortion is a major issue for 2024. If it gets 55% or more in this red state, Democrats across the country and across the spectrum are going to flog abortion rights for all they are worth in 2024. Their slogan is going to be: "If you want to ban all abortions nationwide, vote Republican. If not, vote a straight Democratic ticket." If it fails or barely passes, Democrats may need a whole new strategy in 2024.
  
  Misinformation has been swirling around Ohio for months, much of it produced by DeWine. He said that if Issue 1 passes, abortions will be allowed up until birth and parents will not be involved if their daughter decides to have an abortion. Neither is true. Issue 1 says that the state legislature will lose the power to ban abortions before 24 weeks. Existing Ohio laws state that minors must get permission from their parents before getting an abortion. Nothing in Issue 1 invalidates existing laws. DeWine is lying and trying to scare people. Here are signs about Issue 1:
  
  
  
  Various conservative groups are putting out blatantly false ads. In one of them, the narrator intones: "Your daughter is young, vulnerable, online. Pushed to change her sex, or to get an abortion. You have some right to help her through this, but activists want to take all of that away." However, Issue 1 doesn't say anything about gender-affirming care for minors. And even if it did, there is no place in the country or the world that has forcible gender changes.
  
  Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), who would very much like to become Sen. Frank LaRose, has been working as hard as DeWine to try to secure victory. For example, he tinkered with the wording of the ballot proposition. His tinkering was partisan enough that the state Supreme Court (controlled by Republicans) ordered that new wording be produced. LaRose also purged nearly 27,000 voters from voter rolls back in September without bothering to mention it to anyone, despite it being customary to make an announcement. The Secretary's chances at unseating Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will be affected significantly by today's result.
  
  If the amendment fails, abortions may be banned after 6 weeks on account of an old law still on the books, although the state Supreme Court is considering the constitutionality of that. If it passes, Ohio will attract women needing an abortion from West Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, and possibly other states where abortions are difficult or impossible to get.
  
  
• Ohio's Issue 2: This isn't getting nearly the attention that Issue 1 is, but Ohioans will also decide whether to legalize recreational marijuana today. Should the measure pass, then Ohio will become the 24th state (and one of the reddest states) to bestow approval on the devil's weed. National legalization would be several paces closer to becoming reality. Meanwhile, if the Issue 1/Issue 2 combo appears to bring young people to the polls, it could significantly impact the blue team's playbook next year.
  
  
• Governor of Kentucky: Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), son of a former governor of Kentucky, is trying for reelection in a state hostile to Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state 62% to 36% in 2020 and Beshear barely won in 2019 against a crazy person. Fortunately for him, he is running against a different crazy person this time—and this one is Black. If Beshear wins, it will show that Trump voters are prepared to vote for a Democrat when the alternative is completely loony. That situation might just pop up again in 2024. Oh, and by the way, Beshear has made abortion access the linchpin of his campaign.
  
  
• Governor of Mississippi: Here Republican governor Tate Reeves is running for reelection. It should be a no-brainer, right? Maybe not. He is running against a distant cousin of Mississippi-born Elvis Presley, Brandon Presley. A big question is whether Black voters (and rock 'n' roll fans) will turn out big time for Presley. In 2019, Reeves won by only 5% with a fairly low Black turnout. If Democrats can convince Black voters to show up, the Governor might get all shook up by Presley.
  
  One oddity here is that Presley is anti-choice. This may make him less acceptable to Democrats but more acceptable to Republicans. Since there are more Republicans than Democrats in Mississippi, though, this could be a net plus. Anyhow, we'll know tonight if Reeves needs to book a room at the Heartbreak Hotel.
  
  
• Pennsylvania Supreme Court: In case you missed the memo, Supreme Courts at all levels have become partisan mini-legislatures. In a way, that is not surprising, since justices are either appointed by (partisan) governors or have to run for office, which implies campaigning on issues nowadays. Just saying: "I will just interpret the Constitution and the law" just doesn't cut it anymore. That judges have avoided politics for so long is actually a miracle. But even miracles time out.
  
  In Pennsylvania, judicial races are openly partisan. There is a Supreme Court vacancy on the ballot with Daniel McCaffery (D) running against Carolyn Carluccio (R). The race won't flip the Court, which currently has four Democrats and two Republicans, but the race could give an indication of how the swing state could go in 2024.
  
  
• Virginia Senate District 31: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) has spent the better part of a year trying to have Republicans take over the General Assembly. If he succeeds, there will be an instant boomlet for "Youngkin 2024." If he doesn't, or worse yet, the Democrats keep the Senate and flip the House of Delegates, "Youngkin 2024" will be dead and "Youngkin 2028" will be damaged.
  
  District 31, almost entirely in Loudoun County, is at the epicenter of traditionally Republican territory that is trending blue. Youngkin has tried hard to stanch the bleeding here. Will he succeed? If Russet Perry (D) wins, then no. If Juan Segura (R) wins, then yes.
  
  
• Virginia Senate District 16: This is another key swing district. It is in the Richmond suburbs and pits Schuyler Van Valkenburg (D) against Siobhan Dunnavant (R). Van Valkenburg, a state delegate, is trying for a promotion against an incumbent state senator. The main issue in this district is abortion. Dunnavant, a former OB/GYN, supports Youngkin's plans on abortion but says they will not ban abortions. Actually, they will, after 15 weeks. If Van Valkenburg wins, it will be yet another data point suggesting that abortion will be a millstone around the Republicans' necks next year.
  
  
• Virginia House District 57: This is a weird one. The Democrat, Susanna Gibson (D) live-streamed sex with her own husband on a porn site. She did nothing illegal and having sex with your own husband is certainly not a scandal. Still, doing it on a porn site rubs some people the wrong way. The district leans slightly Republican, which may give David Owen (R) the edge. The state Republican Party is going nuts about the "scandal." It is one of the few General Assembly races that is not dominated by abortion.
  
  
• New Jersey Senate District 3: Will a 2021 surprise winner become a one-hit wonder? In 2021, truck driver Ed Durr (R) knocked off state Senate President Steve Sweeney (D). This race was a massive upset. Can Durr get reelected? Sweeney is not trying to get his job back, so Durr will face John Burzichelli (D). One problem Durr has is that he is apparently pro-choice, something that does not sit well with many Republicans, although in urban media markets, the commercials are portraying him as anti-choice, something that does not sit well with most Democrats.
  
  
• U.S. House District RI-01: There is no question that Gabe Amo (D) will beat Gerry Leonard (R) to replace David Cicilline in this House special election. The question is how well he will do. Democrats have generally overperformed in special elections this year. Will Amo keep up the pace? Hard to predict, since most of the 27 special elections this year have been for state legislatures, not the U.S. House.
  
  
• Bridgeport, CT, Mayor: This one is very odd; something of an election in reverse. The incumbent is Joe Ganim (D), who served five terms as mayor, then did 7 years in prison after being convicted on corruption charges, then was elected to two more terms as mayor. That means he's looking for term #8, but the results of the mayoral primary were thrown out, due to credible charges of ballot-box stuffing. The result is that today's general election will move forward as planned, with Ganim facing off against his Democratic primary challenger, John Gomes, who is now running as an independent, as well as Republican David Herz and independent Lamond Daniels.
  
  If anyone other than Ganim wins, that should be the end of it. But if Ganim wins, as expected, then the Democratic primary will be re-staged at some future (currently undecided) date. Should Gomes triumph in primary v2.0, then Ganim's election victory would be invalid, and there would presumably have to be a general v2.0.
  
  
• NY Suffolk County executive: Republicans rode a red wave in New York in 2022, especially on Long Island. Can they keep it up? This race, pitting Dave Calone (D) vs. Ed Romaine (R), might give us a clue. It was a near tie between Trump and Biden. If Calone wins this one, especially if he wins big, that could be a harbinger that Democrats could pick up as many as four House seats on Long Island in 2024. This race will be watched very closely.
  

This is not a comprehensive list. There could be upsets in races not expected to be competitive. Also, since all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly are up, there are bound to be some surprises in races other than those listed above. (V & Z)