Dem
51
GOP
49
Given the rout the Republicans suffered Tuesday and the low importance of the debates, we'll lead today with
election takeaways.
The New York Times
Sometimes the takeaway pieces are all over the map. Not today. The same themes came up over and over. The winners were Abortion (9x), Glenn Youngkin's defeat (9x), Andy Beshear's win (9x), Tate Reeves win (4x), and Cherelle Parker's win in Philadelphia (3x). It may be a little early for someone to start selling Beshear/Whitmer 2028 or Whitmer/Beshear 2028 bumper stickers, but probably not too early. Among the losers last night, everyone mentioned Youngkin, but another big loser was Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). His path to the White House just got a bit rougher, what with these uppity charismatic moderate Southern governors getting in the way.
Interesting is Fox News' take. It just listed the two gubernatorial races and Virginia elections but somehow missed Issue 1 in Ohio (abortion) and also Issue 2 in Ohio (weed). We guess nobody in red-state land cares about abortion. We haven't been there lately, so we are not sure.
The Siena College poll that has Democrats crying in their white wine showed the problem, but the elections yesterday showed the solution. The problem, at least in part, is that young voters aren't keen on an 80-year-old. But the results in Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia may show the solution. Biden should make his slogan: "Abortion is between a woman and her doctor, not between a woman and her state senator." Just hammer on abortion, morning, noon, and night. Talk about how the Republicans want to ban abortion nationwide and the only solution is to vote for a straight Democratic ticket, all the way down to dogcatcher.
Closely related to that is getting initiatives like Ohio's on the ballot everywhere to drive turnout among young voters. Arizona Democrats are aware of this and are already working on getting a similar amendment on the Arizona state ballot in 2024. They need 383,923 valid signatures before July 3, 2024. They are aiming at 600,000 to provide a buffer since people who are not eligible voters sometimes sign petitions. The Arizona secretary of state, Adrian Fontes, is a Democrat, and is not likely to invalidate Ms. Smith's signature because she forgot to dot the "i" in her name. A measure on abortion will surely drive turnout in this key swing state. Democrats in other swing states surely now have a bee in their bonnet after Ohio. And why not throw in Mary Jane as well? She's just as popular. So, 2 days after Democrats were in deep depression on account of the Siena College poll, things are now looking up for them. Did we ever mention that in politics, a week is a long time?
The other Nate (Cohn) of The New York Times made a good point about the election results, however. Wonky off-year elections like Tuesday's tend to bring out highly tuned in, highly motivated educated voters. These people are largely quite progressive. The general-election electorate in 2024 will be different from Tuesday's, so one should be careful extrapolating Tuesday's result to the elections a year from now. (V)