Nov.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Mike Johnson Could Be the Democrats' Secret Weapon

The fun part is over. Now Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has to govern. And watch the politics at the same time. It won't be easy. He has to prepare a dozen bills to fund the government. He can try to stall a bit (see below) but sooner or later he needs to decide how much each department gets. And his decision has to be able to get 218 votes in the House and 50 or 51 in the Senate. That's the hard part.

Johnson is starting out by writing bills that the Freedom Caucus will vote for. They won't pass the Senate, but they give the Democrats plenty of fodder for campaign ads. For example, the constituents of CA-27 in Southern California, which is D+4 and which Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) won by 6.4% in 2022, are being bombarded with flyers saying that Garcia supports the GOP's extremist funding cuts that will hurt people in the district.

Johnson knows that any bill that makes the Freedom Caucus members smile has no chance at getting past the Senate, but he has to make the effort to show the FCers that he is with them and is trying. But those "show bills," which have no actual chance, put the Biden 18 and other vulnerable Republicans in a real bind. If they vote "nay," they may draw primary challenges from the right, but if they vote "aye," Democrats will kill them over it. They would greatly prefer that Johnson skip the pointless bills that could never pass and start with serious bills. But that would anger members of the FC, so he can't do that either.

Here are six contentious issues Johnson has to deal with in the upcoming bills.

• Schools: The FC wants to cut funding for schools. The flyers the DCCC is circulating in Garcia's district say the cuts will result in firing 108,000 teachers and school staff, which will result in much larger classes and less attention to each student. The attempt to cut the Dept. of Education's budget by 15%, which the FC wants, is so controversial that it hasn't even passed out of the committee yet. It could—on a party line vote—and then the Democratic ads would really start. The cuts will not play well in suburban districts.
  
  
• Abortion: The FC can't leave well enough alone. Members want to include riders in bills that would ban mailing abortion pills nationwide. Good luck with getting that through the Senate. In fact, good luck getting that through the House, especially after what happened in Ohio on Tuesday. But if Johnson kills the riders, the FC members will bolt. If he allows the riders in the initial versions of the bills to convince the FC members that such bills can't pass the Senate, the Democrats will pounce on any Republican who votes for a bill containing such a provision. It is lose-lose for Johnson.
  
  
• Agriculture: Some Republicans want to cut $1 billion in farm subsidies. Let the farmers operate like other businesses, which are not subsidized. The trouble is, many districts have farms and cutting farm subsidies won't play well with the farmers. Democrats are sure to exploit votes to kill farm subsidies.
  
  
• FBI and law enforcement: The Republicans used to support the FBI and law enforcement. Ever since law enforcement has been indicting high-profile Republicans for breaking numerous laws, their support for law enforcement has dwindled. Republicans want to cut the FBI's budget by over $1 billion. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), the ranking member on the panel in charge of the bill, said: "Who's defunding the police now?" Showing that the Republicans are actually trying to defund the police, rather than just a couple of hotheads talking about it, is not going to be helpful in many districts.
  
  
• LGBTQ rights: Republicans don't want to fund gender-affirming care, pride flag displays, or drag queen performances, and want language in bills to prevent government money going for any of these things. If the Democrats are smart, they will oppose these items in bills but won't talk about them in ads. They are too controversial, even among Democrats. There is enough material in the other areas to fill all the ads they want.
  
  
• Rail: Republicans want to take $1 billion out of Amtrak's subsidy. This is extremely unpopular in the Northeast Corridor and Republican representatives who vote against Amtrak are going to have to deal with ads saying: "Rep. [X] wants to kill Amtrak." For people who need Amtrak daily or often, this is going to be a huge issue.
  

In short, Johnson has his hands full now. Keeping the FCers on board while not having the Biden 18 jump ship will test his legislative powers to the max. Legislative powers that, by the way, it's not clear he actually has, as yet. (V)