Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Is Biden 2024 Like Obama 2012?

Jim Messina, who ran Barack Obama's 2012 reelection campaign, has a magazine cover from Nov. 3, 2011 posted in his office. It shows polling-analysis guru Nate Silver declaring that Obama had a 17% chance of being reelected and was basically toast. Go get the jam. As you may recall, on Nov. 7, 2012, magazines and newspapers were running a different story.

Silver's prediction gave Messina a major headache. Not because he believed the polls a year out, but because media outlets, donors, elected officials, and his mom were freaking out. People wouldn't go to rallies because it was all over but the shoutin' (and countin'). People wanted him fired. Sound familiar? Messina says we are now officially in the bedwetting part of the cycle. His message (from someone who's been there): Don't panic. Here's why:

The election will probably be close. They all are these days because 45% of the country will never vote for a Democrat and 45% will never vote for a Republican. Biden has been counted out before (like: February 2020) but he has proved pundits and pollsters wrong before. Sometimes the turtle (no, not that Turtle) beats the hair. (V)

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