Nov.21

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Ron DeSantis Continues to Sink

Boy howdy, has it been a terrible polling month for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). In one poll, he is trailing Donald Trump by 33 points (63%-30%). And the numbers don't get better if you add other candidates in; with Nikki Haley, et al. as options, DeSantis drops to 41 points behind Trump (61% to 20%). In another poll, Trump leads DeSantis by 30 (59% to 29%). In that one, when the other candidates are added, the gap expands to 39 (60% to 21%).

Oh, and there's one small thing we neglected to mention. These are not polls of the national electorate; they are polls of... Florida. When DeSantis first announced back in May, polls of the state, such as this one and this one, put DeSantis and Trump neck and neck. Now, even Floridians aren't buying what DeSantis is selling. And that is a real problem for a guy whose pitch is: "Look at all the stuff I've done for Florida; wouldn't it be great to take it nationwide?"

In short, the Governor is as done as a Thanksgiving turkey... that has been left in the oven 6 hours too long. His only hope involves a rather convoluted series of propositions:

1. Donald Trump suffers one or more legal (or health) reverses
2. These reverses either disqualify Trump, or cause him to drop out, or wound him fatally, or actually kill him
3. Republicans flock to DeSantis as a replacement, as opposed to the on-the-rise Nikki Haley, or to a late entry who jumps in when the opportunity arises (Gov. Brian Kemp, R-GA?)

We suppose DeSantis still has a better chance of being elected president in 2024 than, say, we do. But not by a lot. An awful lot would have to break just right, and the odds of that are none too good. We'd say less than 1%, and you could probably talk us into something like 0.25%.

At this point, he has to decide if getting crushed in the early primaries/caucuses, and then having to head back to Florida with his tail between his legs, is better than making an announcement in which he says: "I think the Republican Party cannot be served well by someone who is in serious legal jeopardy, and so we need to unify behind the best available alternative. That's Nikki Haley right now, and so I am backing her candidacy." It would be B.S., but it might help rehabilitate his "jerk" image a bit, and would allow him to avoid a spanking in January and February.

That said, DeSantis doesn't seem like the type to accept reality, especially when that reality is in conflict with his obviously large ego. And so, he'll probably have to have reality forced upon him by voters, sometime on or about March 5 (Super Tuesday). (Z)