Dem
51
GOP
49
Another day, another House member calling it quits. The latest member to exit, stage right, is Rep. Tony Cárdenas (D-CA). He was interested in becoming a part of leadership and, in particular, he wanted to run the DCCC. Instead, the job went to Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA). With no prospects for promotion, and no new challenges to look forward to, Cárdenas decided that 6 terms will be enough for him.
The Representative's district (CA-29) occupies a big chunk of the San Fernando Valley, north of Beverly Hills (and therefore northwest of downtown Los Angeles). Here's a map:
The district is D+26, and it's 68.2% Latino. We've carefully crunched the numbers, and our prediction is that Cárdenas' successor will be... a Democratic Latino/a. That kind of near-psychic ability to peer into the future is why people come to this site. There's a pretty good chance that the successor will be State Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D), since she already has Cárdenas' endorsement, and since her state assembly district overlaps quite a bit with CA-29.
In addition to Cárdenas, we also have a reverse retirement announcement, which is a little more unusual. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX) had previously announced that he would step down in order to run for the Texas state Senate. His stated reason was a desire to spend more time with his family, which would certainly be doable, since the Texas state Senate only meets for 140 days every other year.
Apparently, Fallon did not check with his family, however, since they opposed the move. Do they like the glory of having a sitting Congressman in the family? Do they not want him around that much? Was the original story a cover, and now circumstances have changed for some reason? Who knows, but Fallon will run for reelection to the House after all. His district is R+16, so whether it's him or it's someone else, the seat is going to remain in Republican hands on Jan. 3, 2025. (Z)