Nov.27

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Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Will Abortion Save the Democrats in 2024?

In 2004, Bush's Brain, Karl Rove, managed to get ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriage approved in many states. Some people credit the initiative in boosting turnout in Ohio in 2004 and thus getting Bush over the top. However, at least one other study suggests that turnout in states with ballot initiatives was not higher than in states without them.

Will ballot measures on abortion goose Democratic turnout in 2024? It is not clear. However, one difference with 2004 is that the same-sex initiatives were intended to get older white voters to the polls. These are voters who don't really need much encouragement to vote. They do it pretty reliably on their own. The abortion measures are aimed at young voters and voters of color, neither of which have such strong track records on turnout. Consequently, abortion measures might actually help the Democrats.

The recent Virginia elections may shed some light on whether abortion helps Democrats. In a suburban Richmond district with a Republican incumbent who promoted a 15-week ban, the Democrat attacked him as an extremist and won. In a suburban district in Loudoun County, a Democrat who flogged abortion knocked off a Republican incumbent who didn't discuss it at all. The message might be that if Democrats hit hard on abortion, it can not only sink Republicans who want to ban it, but even those who are scared to talk about it.

Pro-choice groups are currently trying to get abortion measures on the 2024 ballot in five states, as follows.

• Arizona: A proposed constitutional amendment would protect the right to an abortion up to the moment of fetal viability. That deadline is different from 24 weeks and could change as medical technology improves. The measure also bars the legislature from punishing anyone for aiding an abortion. To get on the ballot, it will need to collect 383,923 valid signatures before July 3, 2024. The groups are hard at work on that now. Arizona will be a key battleground for the presidential race and the Senate race and even a small increase in Democratic turnout could matter.
  
  
• Florida: The Sunshine State became an abortion battleground after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) signed a 6-week abortion ban. Right now, the ban is on hold while the state Supreme Court examines the law. Nevertheless, pro-choice groups are working hard to get a measure guaranteeing the right to an abortion on the ballot just in case. The groups already have 402,082 valid signatures, but need to get a total of 891,523 by Feb. 1, 2024.
  
  
• Missouri: Current Missouri law bans all abortions except in medical emergencies. Two groups are trying to get measures amending the state Constitution on the ballot. One group, Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, filed 11 different amendments. They vary in language but all included the phrase: "the government shall not deny or infringe upon a person's fundamental right to reproductive freedom." Another group, the Missouri Women and Family Research Fund, has also submitted multiple amendments. Now the two groups need to get 171,000 valid signatures to get something on the ballot. By having multiple amendments, they are hoping to increase the chances of getting enough signatures. SoS Jay Ashcroft (R) has written extremely negative summaries for some of them, including saying they allow "dangerous, unregulated, and unrestricted abortions, from conception to live birth, without requiring a medical license or potentially being subject to medical malpractice." Courts have shot Ashcroft down a couple of times, but he is clearly trying to make it as hard as possible for them to qualify.
  
  
• Nevada: Current law in Nevada protects abortions through 24 weeks and in some cases afterwards. Pro-choice groups want to get protection in the Constitution and have proposed an amendment reading: "Every individual has a fundamental right to reproductive freedom, which entails the right to make and effectuate decisions about all matters relating to pregnancy, including, without limitation, prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, birth control, vasectomy, tubal ligation, abortion, abortion care, management of a miscarriage and infertility care." That certainly covers a lot of territory. That might not have been a good idea. A judge shot it down because the Constitution says that amendments must cover only one topic (and we count 10 in the proposed amendment). The pro-choice group can try again with a couple of amendments and make sure each one deals with only one topic.
  
  
• South Dakota: Yeah, South Dakota. But remember, amendments passed in Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio. A pro-choice group is working on an amendment that says during the first trimester of pregnancy, the legislature may not regulate abortion at all and in the second trimester may regulate it only to protect the health of the pregnant woman. The group has until May 7, 2024, to get 35,017 valid signatures.
  

At this point we don't know if any amendments will make the ballot, but experience from other states shows that if there is enough funding, some of them are likely to make it. (V)