Dem
51
GOP
49
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) does his own thing and doesn't care if he pisses other people off or not. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is not as well known to the American public as the media-hungry Jordan is, but he has enormous power behind the scenes. And as the dust settles from the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker, it looks like the race to replace him is going to come down to the punk versus the godfather.
In a normal political world, it's understandable why Scalise would be a candidate. He has his liabilities, of course, including health problems and a close association with the guy who was just cashiered. But he's experienced, he's served in leadership, and he's well connected to the movers and shakers of the Republican Party in general and the House Republican Conference in particular. It's not common for a speaker to exit mid-term, but when it happens, the next person on the totem pole usually gets the call. That's Scalise.
Meanwhile, in a normal political world, Jordan's candidacy would be inconceivable. We called him a punk, which carries positive connotations of "justifiable rebellion against the system" but also negative connotations of "jerk." We definitely meant it in the negative sense. He's a self-aggrandizing ass who is more than willing to sacrifice friends, colleagues, the Constitution, etc., in service of his own self-serving goals. He may just be a vassal (or a villein, if you prefer), but he's nearly as divisive as his feudal lord Donald Trump, and would drive Democrats to the polls in droves in 2024. He is complicit in efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And it's not like he was a great guy before he was elected, either. Most obviously, he is credibly accused of looking the other way while the college wrestlers under his tutelage were victimized by a serial molester.
Needless to say, we do not live in a normal political world, and so... Jordan's candidacy is gaining traction. McCarthy's staff is working the phones on behalf of the Ohioan (we told you McCarthy and Scalise don't like each other). Sean Hannity, who is now Fox's most prominent entertainer, has endorsed him. And late last night, after briefly floating himself as a "temporary" option, Trump officially endorsed Jordan. It's enough that former representative Adam Kinzinger, who obviously has special insight here, predicted yesterday that Jordan will be the pick (though it should be noted that former representative Liz Cheney thinks Jordan is unelectable).
For our part, we still agree with Cheney. Jordan might get to 30 votes, or 50 or maybe even 100. But 218? We just don't see how. We cannot imagine that the Biden 18 are willing to hitch their fates to such a divisive figure. There have to be at least 100 other members who represent red districts, but are nervous about the same thing. And that's before we talk about the fact that there's a lot of resentment of the Freedom Caucusers (of which Jordan is one) for derailing McCarthy.
We also don't see how the current calendar (let's get the new speaker in place by Tuesday or Wednesday) can possibly work out. This is currently a faction in disarray; beyond the basic political calculus of "who best to lead the GOP into the presidential election," emotions are also running very high right now. To give just a few examples, Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) declared that he doesn't want either Scalise or Jordan, and his candidate is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and several others are still holding out hope for Trump. Numerous colleagues are furious with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) for betraying McCarthy (who helped her get elected) and then for rushing off to her office immediately after the vote to begin fundraising off of the former Speaker's demise. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), who was Rep. Markwayne Mullin until January of this year, went on CNN yesterday to tell unflattering stories about Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), like "He bragged about how he would crush E.D. medicine and chase it with energy drinks so he could go all night." Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) was also on CNN, and said he'd like to throw the 8 Republicans who voted against McCarthy out of the GOP conference. Another Republican member, who would only speak off the record, said: "The only grudge that I know as a fact is going to last is the one we are going to hold against those eight a**holes."
In sum, this does not seem like a group that is going to be able to reach a grand compromise in the next 3 or 4 days. Especially since it's not just about the person, it's about the circumstances under which they serve. If the next speaker has the "any individual member can vacate" rule hanging over their head, then it's inevitable that there will be a repeat of what happened this week—and as soon as next month, when the budget has to be addressed. But will the Freedom Caucusers ever agree to support a non-FCer for speaker without that option available? Will the non-FCers ever agree to support a Freedom Caucuser without that option available?
Maybe there is some middle way that we can't see, but it sure looks to us like there's going to be a staunch pro-Jordan faction and a staunch pro-Scalise faction, and neither group is going to be willing to cut a deal—certainly not before tensions have had time to cool a little. Maybe they'll go through with a public round of voting or two, just for show purposes, but maybe not, since public failures are embarrassing. We just don't have any idea what next week will look like.
We're not optimistic, but we're going to beat this drum again: What really needs to happen is that someone in the Republican conference needs to start thinking differently, and in particular to realize that the GOP really isn't one party anymore, it is two, and those two are pulling apart at the seams. In a parliamentary system, which the U.S. is doing an excellent job of mimicking, if your coalition partner becomes unreliable, you look for a new partner. In this case, the only alternative available is the Democrats (or, if you prefer, the Blue Dog Democrats). Changing the paradigm is the only real chance at ending the dysfunction that has characterized the House for much of the last two decades, and for nearly all of the time that the Republicans were in the majority. Or, as Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) put it (and we're not going to censor, since he said it on camera and it was broadcast on cable): "Replacing one dick with a different kind of dick isn't gonna change anything." (Z)