Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Error, Jordan

Wannabe speaker Jim Jordan (R-OH) thought he was close to 217 votes and thought that holding a floor vote would get the remaining holdouts in line. He was 0-for-2 with those assumptions.

This screen grab from C-SPAN's broadcast pretty much tells the tale:

212 votes for Hakeem Jeffries, 200 for Jordan, 20 for other candidates, no votes of 'present'

Not only was Jordan not elected speaker, he got one less vote than Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) did in the first round of January's 15-round extravaganza.

Can Jordan grab those last few votes, the way McCarthy did? It's not looking promising for him. Consider, first of all, the 20 "nay" votes. Here are their names, their districts, the PVI of those districts, whether or not they are among the "Biden 18," and who they voted for instead of Jordan:

Member     District  Dist. PVI Biden 18? Voted For
Don Bacon NE-02 EVEN Yes McCarthy
Lori Chavez-DeRemer OR-05 D+2 Yes McCarthy
Anthony D'Esposito NY-04 D+5 Yes former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY)
Mario Diaz-Balart FL-26 R+8 No Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA)
Jake Ellzey TX-06 R+15 No Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA)
Andrew Garbarino NY-02 R+3 No Zeldin
Carlos Giménez FL-28 R+2 No McCarthy
Tony Gonzales TX-23 R+5 No Scalise
Kay Granger TX-12 R+12 No Scalise
Mike Kelly PA-16 R+13 No Scalise
Jennifer Kiggans VA-02 R+2 Yes McCarthy
Nick LaLota NY-01 R+3 Yes Zeldin
Mike Lawler NY-17 D+3 Yes McCarthy
John Rutherford FL-05 R+11 No Scalise
Mike Simpson ID-02 R+14 No Scalise
Steve Womack AR-03 R+15 No Scalise
Ken Buck CO-04 R+13 No Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN)
John James MI-10 R+3 No Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK)
Doug LaMalfa CA-01 R+12 No McCarthy
Victoria Spartz IN-05 R+11 No Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY)

As you can see, there isn't one, single problem that Jordan faces as he tries to find 17 more votes. It's not a group of, say, McCarthy allies who might be persuaded to fall in line by the former speaker. What you've really got here, to a greater or lesser extent, are about 10 members for whom Jordan is just too extreme and about 10 members who just dislike Jordan and/or the way he tried to claim power. In the latter group, for example, is Mario Diaz-Balart, who told reporters after the vote: "The one thing that will never work with me—if you try to pressure me, if you try to threaten me, then I shut off," and said he had no intention of changing his vote. Diaz-Balart's fellow Floridian, Carlos Giménez, agreed that he wasn't going to change his vote, "especially now, in the light of these pressure tactics."

Yesterday, we mentioned that the pressure tactics could include threats, direct or implied, against members or their families. Well, now there are specifics to back that up. The wife of Don Bacon shared with Politico some of the anonymous messages she's gotten on her cell phone in the past few days. For example:

Your husband will not hold any political office ever again. What a disappoint [sic] and failure he is.


Talk to your husband tell him to step up and be a leader and help the Republican Party get a speaker there's too much going on in the world for all this going on in the Republican Party you guys take five steps forward and then turn around take 20 steps backwards no wonder our party always ends up getting screwed over.

As you can see above, Bacon is one of the "no" votes.

Jordan thought he could huddle with the 20 holdouts after the first vote, win them over to his side, and get himself elected in a second vote. With that faulty presumption, he made it 0-for-3, and he eventually concluded he would have to postpone the second round of voting to today. There is a very good chance that not only will he not make up ground in the next vote, he will actually drop below 200 votes. Several GOP members reportedly only pledged to vote Jordan on the first ballot, in the name of party unity. If they now regard themselves as free agents, who can do what's best for themselves as opposed to what's best for the Conference, then Jordan's bid is in even deeper trouble.

Meanwhile, the House keeps lurching toward the solution that has been in front of them from the beginning. The anti-Jordan forces want to confer additional powers upon Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC). They have been talking to several moderate Democrats, who agree, and who have reportedly got House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) warming up to the plan.

In short, we may have an answer today to the question of who will run the House (at least, in the short term). It's just not the answer that Jordan was hoping for. (Z)

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