Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Speaker Mess Produces Its First Bit of Fallout

You have to assume that once House Republicans figure out what to do with the speakership, some dominoes are going to fall. Some folks who did not back an extremist are likely to draw primary challenges from the right, while some folks who did back an extremist are likely to draw a primary challenge from the center. Although, with the dynamics of today's GOP, the former is more likely than the latter.

Yesterday, with the speakership far from settled, the first politician made their move. Navy veteran Phil Ehr (D) was going to try to knock off Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), but then Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) jumped into that race, backed by the Democratic establishment. So, Ehr just announced that he'll shoot for the House instead, and will take on Carlos Giménez in the very purple FL-08. Ehr's thinking is that in vocally supporting Donald Trump and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), but opposing Jordan, Giménez will have alienated the Republican base, and many of them won't vote for him on Election Day.

It's an interesting theory, and certainly Ehr has a better chance of beating Giménez than he does of beating Mucarsel-Powell and then turning around and beating Scott. We really don't think things will work out the way that Ehr is hoping, but you can't blame him for trying. In any event, it's a reminder that the speaker situation is likely to generate a lot of moves and counter-moves, particularly once someone actually has the gavel. (Z)

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