Oct.25

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Trump Legal News: Turn, Turn, Turn!

Yesterday, for the third time in as many business days, one of Donald Trump's former lawyers turned on him and took a plea deal in Georgia. The newest canary to sing is Jenna Ellis, who becomes the fourth of the 19 Georgia defendants to cop a plea.

Yet again, reader A.R. in Los Angeles—who, as a lawyer, is better equipped to comment than us—has been kind enough to write up an assessment:

To recap, when last we met our conspirators, Sydney "release the Kraken" Powell had just pled guilty to six misdemeanor counts and will serve 6 years' probation in exchange for testifying against the other 18 remaining defendants. The next to plead guilty was Kenneth "The Cheese" Chesebro (yes, that's actually his nickname, as he's from Wisconsin). He had to plead guilty to a felony and will serve 5 years' probation in exchange for cooperating.

Enter Jenna Ellis. She has now entered a guilty plea to one felony count of aiding and abetting false statements and writings. She was originally charged with two counts: (1) Racketeering (RICO) and (2) solicitation of violation of oath by a public officer. While the earlier plea deals were primarily bad news for Trump, this plea is very bad news for Giuliani. He should invest now in some really heavy-duty hair dye because he'll be sweating more than at that press conference.

The Georgia indictment lays out in granular detail all the various strands in the illegal effort to overturn the result of the 2020 election and keep Trump in power. These strands can be organized into 3 buckets (forgive the mixed metaphor): (1) sow doubt and confusion in the state legislatures in swing states to pressure Republican legislators to take action to disrupt the certification process either at the state or federal level; (2) submit fake electors to Congress to disrupt the certification process on Jan. 6; and (3) access voting machines and steal software to claim the machines are part of a larger plot to rig the election. Chesebro was the architect for the fake electors and Powell orchestrated the voting machine heist in Coffee County. With those guilty pleas, Willis has buckets 2 and 3 covered.

With Ellis, she now has a state's witness for Bucket #1. That was Giuliani's mandate. He was tasked with contacting and pressuring the Republican legislators in key swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada. Ellis accompanied him and participated in presentations on all these trips with the exception of Nevada, so no doubt she took part in all the planning and strategy sessions. The scheme was to first disrupt the state certification process on December 14 and when that failed, to put into action their efforts to disrupt the electoral count in Congress. Ellis even penned two memos laying out her theory on how to disrupt the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6 and stop the vote count. According to the indictment, she wrote, "the Vice-president [sic] should begin alphabetically in order of the states and coming first to Arizona, not open the purported certification, but simply stop the count at that juncture."

Ellis took the unusual step of addressing the Court and expressed remorse for her actions. She sounded genuine, which would make her testimony against other defendants that much more powerful and persuasive. Quite frankly, Giuliani should be getting his affairs in order. I don't think there's anything he could offer Willis that would cause her to agree to a plea to lesser charges. Not only did he plot to use Georgia officials to overthrow the duly elected president, but he also ruined the lives of two dedicated public servants who were only doing their jobs to ensure a free and fair election. She takes that very seriously and she wants him to be held accountable for those crimes. With the Ellis plea, she's got him.

My guess is the next to flip will be John Eastman—he's running out of time to get a good deal and with his skin tone, orange is really not his color.

Thanks yet again, A.R.! And on that final point, after Chesebro turned traitor, we ran a survey asking readers to predict who would flip next. Here are the results, along with some comments on each (we neglected to ask people to identify themselves, so we can't give credit, unfortunately):

1. Ellis (31.1%):
   
   
   • Her value will diminish with each additional flip. The time is now.
   • We're basically picking the not-always-drunk person who'll run out of money first, right?
   • The weakest link
   
   
2. Eastman (26.9%):
   
   
   • Tough choice between Jeffrey Clark, Mark Meadows, and my choice, as all three might well be in the better positions to connect dots than the rest of the list, so Fani Willis might be pressing hardest on these three to flip. While Giuliani might make the same "cut," it seems he has resigned his fate to others' wallets/hands.
   • He knows he's cooked, he's not as drunk as (soberer than?) Giuliani, and there's no honor among election thieves.
   • I just want to get one of these right for once.
   
   
3. Former White House Chief-of-Staff Mark Meadows (12.1%):
   
   
   • Two reasons: (1) He knows the most, and (2) he's too pretty for prison.
   • Powell and Chesebro have the goods on Meadows, so his only way out is to spill on Trump.
   • He's been uncharacteristically quiet. He's already flipped.
   
   
4. Coffee County staffer and fake elector Cathy Latham (6.4%):
   
   
   • She's a bit player and a nobody with waaaay too many charges to fight against.
   • Never underestimate prayer. But also, never underestimate an empty wallet.
   • Low-level flippers are next. This will be the first call the Coffee County staffers make Monday morning.
   
   
5. Coffee County staffer Misty Hampton (4.3%):
   
   
   • Picked one of the minor players at random. I think they, the minors, will all start flipping soon.
   • Low-level participant that will likely have trouble paying for legal counsel; same goes for the other Coffee County staffers.
   • Powell folded like a cheap lawn chair; she may also play Misty for a fall girl and fling her under the bus. Why would Coffee County Klan Collaborator want to go to trial?
   
   
6. Giuliani (3.9%):
   
   
   • No money, mo' problems.
   • He has so many external forces acting on him, seemingly more than others. Also, it would be the schadenfreude to end all schadenfreude.
   • Wishful thinking.
   
   
7. Fake elector Ray Smith (2.5%):
   
   
   • Sardine among big fish with 12 counts charged. Waiting for the cavalcade of pleas.
   • Presumably does not have the financial resources for competent defense lawyers long term.
   • Facing 12 charges, he has the most to lose.
   
   
8. Former DoJ official Jeffrey Clark (2.4%):
   
   
   • He's a dope and a weasel, so will save his own skin. The dope part is because he left a paper trail for his crimes.
   • Just a guess between him, John Eastman and Mark Meadows
   • My only hesitation is that he's a youngish guy who might lose his law license, and thus his profession. May be worth it to him to roll the dice.
   
   
9. Fake elector David Shafer (2%):
   
   
   • That's a lot of charges just for a fake elector.
   • As former head of the Georgia GOP, he may have considerable knowledge about how the elector scam was developed and who was involved on the Georgia end of the plot.
   • Seemed unimportant enough overall, so would get a good deal if he flipped, as he is not a big fish.
   
   
10. There will be no more plea deals (1.7%):
    
    
    • Willis probably has all she needs at this point so there is no more reason to offer a plea deal. Or... I could be wrong!
    • Not for a few months, anyway. Powell and Chesebro were playing a high risk game, and when it didn't work, they cut their losses. Everybody else is delaying until March, hoping something else might come up.
    • Everyone else thinks it's a joke!
    
    
11. Coffee County staffer Scott Graham Hall (0.8%):
    
    
    • It could be any of the Coffee County staffers. This could be their last chance to get out from under. But I also thought the Republicans would go off the deep end and elect Jordan speaker, so what do I know?
    • Hall is merely a placeholder for all the bit players (i.e., not Eastman, Meadows or Ellis). There is no reason that any of them, at this point in time, should continue to fight, and instead should just get the best deal they can, and save attorneys' fees. Based on the first three plea bargains, as long as they agree to cooperate, they should be able to avoid jail time and probably get away with misdemeanor pleas.
    • Easiest target, probably doesn't have a lot of money
    
    
12. Former leader of Black Voices for Trump Harrison William Prescott Floyd (0.7%):
    
    
    • No money.
    • Maybe Fani Willis will take pity on a fellow African American?
    • Does he really want to put his fate in the hands of a public defender, up against the mighty Willis legal machine?
    
    
13. Trump campaign staffer Michael Roman (0.66%):
    
    
    • Staffer, not a pol.
    • Cannot afford to lose his case.
    • Because if a Roman flips, then it sets up the headline "Et tu, Brute?"
    
    
14. Giver of false testimony Robert Cheeley (0.63%):
    
    
    • Cheeley has the most to lose. He was clearly deeply involved in the plot, so he has a lot of dirt. And he is a major partner in a law firm. If he cuts a deal like the first two, he can save his job and his business. He also has no personal relationship to Trump, something that might hold back Rudy and Eastman.
    • His particular misdeeds are SO easy to prove. They are literally "on the record."
    • Just a hunch.
    
    
15. Donald Trump (0.6%):
    
    
    • It wouldn't be a surprise to see Trump try to flip on everybody else in a desperate attempt to save himself.
    • On the advice of his counsel, Jesus Christ (who has been sketched sitting next to him in the New York courtroom), Trump confesses his sins and asks for forgiveness. Fani turns the other cheek.
    • I just want to be able to say I predicted Trump in the 1/1x10^100th chance that he flips next.
    
    
16. Publicist Trevian C. Kutti (0.5%):
    
    
    • The only one whose indictment actively undermines their career.
    • Small fish, chosen at random.
    • There have been no guilty pleas thus far for "manner and method of the enterprise," the harassment and intimidation of Fulton County Election Worker Ruby Freeman. A guilty plea by either Kutti or Floyd will put more pressure on Stephen Lee to flip.
    
    
17. Pastor Stephen Cliffgard Lee (0.45%):
    
    
    • It's not so much which defendant wants to flip but what crimes Willis wants to knock down. Powell and Chesebro cover fake electors and voting machines. Next is intimidating poll workers.
    • I randomly chose someone I haven't heard of because I figure a small fish won't have the resources to fight this.
    • Lee might be talking to a higher power more frequently than the others and "see the light" sooner.
    
    
18. State Senator and fake elector Shawn Still (0.4%):
    
    
    • With The Cheese taking a plea deal, I think the fake electors are the next most likely batch. They won't have the monetary resources to keep fighting.
    • I would have said Giuliani, but I think he's trying to bide his time. A state senator is always looking to his own next election and doesn't want to damage his reelection chances.
    • Too many choices of smaller fish, a better question would have been "Who will be the biggest fish to reach a plea deal?"

Some good thoughts, some funny thoughts, and some good and funny thoughts. The third Meadows commenter, as it turns out, is right... at least in part. There's no indication the former White House Chief of Staff has flipped in Georgia, but according to ABC News, he has been granted federal immunity by Jack Smith, and has already sat with the Special Counsel's team for several interviews. The most significant thing Meadows reportedly said is that he told Trump several times that the election was not stolen, and that it was as secure as any presidential election has ever been. In view of the fact that the bridge is now officially burned, it's hard to see why Meadows wouldn't flip in Georgia, unless Willis is not offering a deal (or is not offering a sweet enough deal).

Meanwhile, in case it wasn't enough for Trump to get stabbed in the back in Georgia, and also in Washington, he got to sit in court yesterday and watch former fixer Michael Cohen spill all kinds of dirt. Cohen said, among other things, that Trump is a "proven liar" (certainly true) and that when it was necessary to assign a value to a property, or to judge his former boss' net worth, Trump would just pull a number out of thin air and then order CFO Allen Weisselberg and his staff to cook up paperwork that supported the figure. Trump's legal team tried to impeach the witness by pointing out that he's been convicted of perjury. That is true, Cohen has been, but "the witness is a liar" generally only works when the defendant isn't an even bigger liar, which does not appear to be the case here.

In short, not a great day for the former president on the legal front. That will happen, as we understand it, when you're facing 91 felony counts in four different jurisdictions. (Z)