Dem 51
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GOP 49
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New York Republicans Want to Expel "Santos"

New York Republicans in the House will offer a privileged resolution later this week to expel Rep. "George Santos" (R-NY) from the House. This means that Mike Johnson must hold a vote on it within 2 days.

Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) said: "George Santos should not be a member of Congress. He should have resigned. We've seen a cascade of indictments, more criminal activity. He basically has admitted to being a fraud. And if that resolution comes to the floor, I'll vote for it."

Johnson will be in a bind here. On the one hand, supporting an obvious criminal will tarnish the Republican brand even more than it is now and probably result in losing 3-5 House seats in 2024 in New York. On the other hand, if "Santos" is expelled (which requires a two-thirds majority), there will be a special election in his NY-03 district on Long Island, which is D+2. A Democrat is likely to win the election, reducing Johnson's majority even more. Since all the Democrats will vote for expulsion, it will take only 77 of the 221 Republicans (35%) to boot "Santos" from the House.

It is rare for a House member to be expelled. It has happened only five times, usually after a member has been convicted of a crime. "Santos" hasn't been convicted of anything yet, although he is in deep trouble on many of the 23 counts he has been charged with. But even if "Santos" escapes the ax this time, he might not next time. Also, any member voting to save "Santos'" neck is going to hear about that in great detail during his or her next campaign, especially if "Santos" has been convicted by then. Ads like: "Rep. X voted to keep convicted criminal George Santos in the House" are not going to mention that the vote came before the conviction (or plea deal).

The motion to expel isn't the only one to attack a member scheduled for this week. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has introduced a privileged resolution to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) for antisemitic activity. You have to admit, if anyone in the House is an expert in antisemitic activity, it's Marge. In any case, this resulted in a privileged resolution from Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) to censure Greene for fanning the Jewish space lasers... er, the flames of hatred. A censure resolution requires only a simple majority, not a two-thirds majority as an expulsion resolution does. (V)

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