Dem
51
GOP
49
Hamas may have made a terrible mistake attacking Israel, but not for the obvious reasons. The attack is tearing the Democratic Party limb from limb. Older Democrats, especially white ones, are solidly behind Joe Biden's strong pro-Israel stance. Younger Democrats, especially nonwhite ones, and left-leaning ones, are unhappy with him and want him to condemn both Hamas and Israel. This divide is convulsing liberal America, from D.C. to Hollywood, and from college campuses to union halls. Once the IDF gets going in Gaza and many more people are killed, the battle within the Democratic Party will only get worse.
By November of next year, most Democrats will probably see the choice is not Israel vs. Hamas, but Biden vs. Trump and will vote for Biden. But some nontrivial number will be so angry with Israel and Biden that they will vote for some protest third-party candidate, maybe Cornel West or whoever the Green Party puts up. If enough Democrats do this, in the expected close election, then Donald Trump will win.
If the war in the Middle East is still on by Jan. 20, 2025, that's when the rubber hits the road. What happens if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asks President Trump for permission to use (tactical) nuclear weapons in Gaza, to teach Hamas a lesson it won't quickly forget? Biden would instantly veto the idea and that would be the end of it. Would Trump veto it? We're not so sure. If he didn't, we do think Hamas would not forget it for a while, but it would not likely lead to peace in our time. Or anybody else's time.
The big problem here is that young voters tend to be impulsive and idealistic and not interested in arguments like: "If you decide to punish Biden for strongly disagreeing with you, you are going to get something much worse." Think about those 92,000 people who voted for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000. Did they really want George W. Bush as president? No, they wanted to send a message. And look what they got. Older voters tend to be better at seeing the consequences of their decisions and realizing that "sending them a message" isn't always the best course of action. (V)