Sep.13

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Dem 51

   

GOP 49

McCarthy's Got Troubles

We are getting close to the time when Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) must somehow pay the piper. He secured his current post, and held onto it, with several displays of political jiu-jitsu that we didn't know he had in him. But by the end of the month, the government needs to be funded. If not, it will shut down and Republicans will likely get the blame. Given that McCarthy needs the votes of Freedom Caucusers who think that would be a fine and dandy outcome, if the Speaker is going to extract himself from the mess he's in, he's going to need to show some moves that would put Bruce Lee to shame.

Before we get to the actual news from yesterday, let's lay out the various things that McCarthy is dealing with as he plots his chess (checkers?) moves:

• The Budget Situation: In a little over 2 weeks, the government will have no budget in place, and will no longer be able to spend money (other than that paying for essential things, and for things that are funded with instruments other than the annual budget—such as, for example, the salaries of the members of Congress). McCarthy can pursue the usual course, which is a continuing resolution (CR) that keeps funding level and kicks the can down the road to December or so. Alternatively, he can also try to pass a complete budget proposal for FY 2023-24. The latter option really only exists in theory, however, like a perfect vacuum or absolute zero temperatures. In the real world, there's no way a budget gets hammered out by September 30, what with all the cat herding that needs to be done.
  
  
• The White House: The Biden administration is perfectly happy to sign off on a CR, since the President knows full well how this works. There hasn't been a budget in place on October 1 since 1998, and since Biden's career in politics began, it's only happened four times in total.
  
  That said, Biden is also a wily operator. In addition to the overall budget, the White House has put forward a supplemental spending bill that gives the far-right something they say they want ($4 billion for border security), along with something that many members in both parties want ($16 billion in disaster relief), along with something that the Biden administration wants ($24 billion for Ukraine). Merely bringing this bill to the floor of the House might threaten McCarthy's speakership, so he's not going to do it. That means the primary effect of the proposal will be to highlight and exacerbate the fissures in the House Republican Conference.
  
  
• The Senate: The members of the Senate, on both sides of the aisle, also understand how things work, and are also (largely) on board with the usual CR. This week, they will begin discussion of $280 billion in funding to keep the government operating through the end of the year. Republican leadership, starting with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), has made clear that if McCarthy wants to pursue a different course, it's up to him to come up with a bill and get it through the House, because Senate Republicans aren't going to help.
  
  
• House Democrats: House Democrats are also OK with the CR. The more interesting question is why there has been no movement by McCarthy to try to get some moderate Democratic votes for budget matters (and for other things, like him keeping his speakership). It is true that if the Democrats give McCarthy the votes needed to nullify the Freedom Caucusers, they are going to be in an excellent position to demand lots of juicy concessions. That undoubtedly grinds the Speaker's gears, but the real question should be: Are the concessions the Democrats would want really more odious and politically problematic than the ones the Freedom Caucusers want?
  
  Maybe McCarthy has tried to reach across the aisle, and has been rebuffed (if true, that would represent a change of course from May, when the blue team was more than willing to play ball). Or maybe he's so scared of someone finding out that he tried an olive branch, he just doesn't want to take the risk. Or maybe he's so fully internalized the notion that Democrats are evil socialists, he's not willing to make the seemingly obvious move when it comes to neutering the Freedom Caucusers. Undoubtedly, there will one day be a great book written about all of this, and then we'll finally know what the deal was.
  
  
• The Freedom Caucus: And here we hit the real roadblock. Whether it is a CR or it is the actual budget, the Freedom Caucusers want all kinds of things that are probably not going to be OK with the correct number of House Republicans (i.e., 220 of them), are not going to get through the Senate, and are certainly not going to get Biden's signature. For example, several of them want to gut funding for the Dept. of Justice. Nearly all of them want to dramatically cut spending from current levels. Some of them want to "solve" the "border crisis" while at the same time slashing funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
  
  The problem is that the sword of Damocles that normally hangs over recalcitrant factions like this, namely a shutdown, doesn't bother the FCers. Not only are they not concerned about a shutdown, most of them say (probably truthfully) that they welcome it, and they are sure that Biden will get the blame. That's not what history says, but the FCers are not exactly studious types. In addition, if the FCers are displeased—say, by negotiations for a bipartisan CR—they are more than willing to invoke their negotiated right to try to vacate the chair. If the FCers and the Democrats all vote to eject McCarthy, then he'd lose his gavel.

In short, it's a mess, and one in which McCarthy is clearly not willing to pursue the obvious solution, namely reaching across the aisle.

And that brings us to the actual news from yesterday. All the signs pointed in this direction, and now it's come to pass: The Speaker announced that he was initiating a formal impeachment inquiry targeting Biden. He wants the relevant committees to take a long look at Hunter Biden, the DoJ, the border and whatever else they can think of.

Let us now consider some of the problems with impeaching Biden:

• There's No "There" There: The Biden family has been under a microscope, one wielded by a U.S. Attorney, for five years, and there has been nothing found that links the President to any illegal behavior. That is not likely to change.
  
  
• No House Vote: Back in 2019, McCarthy took to the platform then known as Twitter to declare: "Speaker Pelosi can't decide on impeachment unilaterally. It requires a full vote of the House of Representatives." He has now changed his tune, showing that he's learned at least a little something from Mitch McConnell about one set of rules for Republicans and a different set for Democrats. That said, the important thing here is not that the Speaker is a hypocrite (although many Democrats did not hesitate to point that out yesterday). The important thing is that McCarthy would have brought it up for a vote if he knew he had 220 Republicans. And if he doesn't have 220 votes to merely consider an impeachment, he surely doesn't have 220 votes to actually impeach Biden.
  
  
• DOJ Policy: Back in 2020, the Department of Justice adopted, as its official policy, a document that declares that impeachment investigations are only valid if they are approved by the entire House. We all know why the Trump-era DoJ adopted that position; it's the same reason McCarthy adopted that position. But while McCarthy is free to pretend that he never said what he said, the DoJ policy is still on the books, and is still binding until AG Merrick Garland decides otherwise. That means that, courtesy of Donald Trump & Co., the various executive agencies (DoJ, IRS, HHS) are free to ignore any impeachment-related requests from House Committees, because according to Trump-White-House-approved executive branch policy, the impeachment inquiry is not valid.
  
  
• The Senate GOP Wants No Part of It: Not only is the executive branch not going to lift a finger to help McCarthy & Co., the Senate GOP isn't either. They don't believe the evidence is there, and what they are concerned with is the budget. When Mitch McConnell was asked about the subject, he said that "impeachment ought to be rare" and "is not good for our country," and "I don't think Speaker McCarthy needs any advice from the Senate on how to run the House." Translation: You're on your own, you little pi**ant.
  
  
• Trump Wants It Badly: In contrast to Senate Republicans, Donald Trump does not care one bit about the budget, but he cares very much about getting Biden impeached. And he is busy lobbying friendly House members to make it happen. They will not give this up easily, since they do not want to displease the Dear Leader.

Bringing it all together, here's what it boils down to: In an effort to placate the Freedom Caucus, and to get them to back a CR, McCarthy backed the impeachment inquiry the FCers so badly wanted. However, the inquiry isn't going to go anywhere, and certainly isn't going to lead the House to pass an impeachment resolution. Meanwhile, it's also not going to placate the FCers. They insist on getting 100% of what they want, and will not be happy with anything less. Indeed, just about an hour after McCarthy announced the impeachment inquiry, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) took to the floor to talk about how it might be time to talk about removing the Speaker from his post.

We haven't the faintest idea how this all ends. But the odds that McCarthy is still speaker by the time Christmas rolls around are, what, 50/50 at best?

Oh, and another little detail. If Gaetz brings up a motion to vacate the chair, all the Democrats and the FCers will vote for it. Presto! Empty chair. But the House needs a speaker. Remember last time the chair was technically vacant, say, Jan. 3, 2023? It took the better part of a week and 15 rounds of voting to fill it. Would it be easier this time around? Is there anybody that 218 Republicans could support for House speaker (other than maybe Donald Trump)? If it took a couple of weeks for the House Republicans to elect a compromise speaker with the help of Democratic votes (say, a moderate, noncontroversial Republican), then Democrats would campaign in 2024 on a platform of "The Republicans are crazy and can't govern. Vote a straight Democratic ticket to flush them all down the toilet." Yes, McCarthy made a deal in January, but he should have read Faust before doing so. It has some useful lessons. (Z)