Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Tonight Is the Second Republican Debate

There is nothing about the Second Republican Debate that we can tell you that you don't already know, so we won't try. Neither did FiveThirtyEight, which is now tightly integrated into current owner ABC News (even after Nate Silver's departure this May). But FiveThirtyEight's Galen Druke nevertheless made an interesting story about the debate by going to Simi Valley, the suburb north of Los Angeles where the Ronald Reagan Library is located (and where the debate will be held) to interview people there. Simi Valley has voted Republican ever since it was incorporated—except 2020, when it voted for Joe Biden. The story is about how pleasant suburbs like Simi Valley are going to play a big role in the 2024 election. The location of the Ronald Reagan Library is now a bellwether! If the Democrats can clean up in suburbs like Simi Valley, they will probably win in 2024.

Druke is a bit overdramatic, but watching the video presentation of his findings is a worthwhile way to spend 5 minutes and 18 seconds. (ABC doesn't make it possible to embed videos, so all we can do is give you a link to it.) (V)

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