Apr.08

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Today's Abortion News

You are going to hear about abortion every day if the Democrats have anything to say about it. Here's today's abortion dump:

• Ballot initiatives: Abortion might be on the ballot in as many as 11 States in November. Abortion measures have already qualified in New York, Maryland and Florida, and are in progress in eight other states, as shown on this map.
  
  
  
  The status of the initiative varies quite a bit from state to state. In Arizona, organizers already have enough signatures, but need to have them certified. In Arkansas, advocates need to get 91,000 signatures by July 5. In Colorado, there are competing measures, one of which would amend the state Constitution to make abortion legal and one to amend the Constitution to make it a felony. If both pass, we'd kind of be in uncharted waters. The Missouri constitutional amendment to legalize abortion needs 171,500 valid signatures by May 5 but there is also one to ban the procedure completely. In Montana, 60,000 signatures are needed by June 21 to put a measure to legalize abortion on the November ballot. In Nebraska, three competing measures have been proposed; one would make abortion legal until the point of viability, one would ban it after 13 weeks, and one would ban it except to save the life of the mother. The Nevada organizers think they have enough signatures already to get a pro-choice measure on the ballot. The South Dakota measure lays out different procedures for each trimester. It needs 35,000 signatures by May 7. For more information on the initiatives, see this article.
  
  
• Will it help Biden?: It is known that about two-thirds of Americans are pro-choice. But will that translate into votes for Joe Biden? That is the $64,000 question. Right now Biden is facing an enthusiasm gap and possible defections of minority men. It is likely that in states with an abortion initiative on the ballot, some young people who might otherwise not vote might show up to vote on the initiative, but will young voters who are angry with Biden over Gaza also vote for him, or just vote for the initiative and leave it at that?
  
  As to minority voters, many of them, especially religious Latinos who are Catholic, are not automatically votes for either abortion or Biden, and if Biden is tied too closely to abortion, the initiatives and campaign theme may be counterproductive. Also, for many of these voters, economic issues may dominate and some of them may remember the Trump administration fondly, with almost no inflation and government checks with Trump's name on them arriving from time to time.
  
  
• Abortion provider is running for Congress: When Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announced that he will resign from Congress on April 19, it set off a frenzy in his R+10 district. One of the first people to announce was Dr. Kristin Lyerly, an OB/GYN who performs abortions. In the states above, voters will be able to vote on abortion; in WI-08, they will be able to vote for or against an actual abortion provider. Lyerly has already said that her whole campaign will be about abortion. Since Green Bay is in the district, maybe a bit of attention to the Packers would also be helpful. The district is quite red, but abortion rights are also quite popular, so Lyerly might have a chance.
  
  
• Trump takes a stand: Donald Trump has bravely ventured into the abortion wars. Yesterday he said that as dealmaker-in-chief, he would make a deal that pleased everyone. Only he didn't specify what would be in the deal. He did "suggest," however, that allowing abortions up to the 15th week of pregnancy would make everyone happy.
  
  Good luck with that one. Neither side will accept it. One GOP strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns said: "You're getting the worst of both worlds by pitching a 15-week ban. Pro-life groups still aren't going to be happy, and you're still supporting a nationwide limit that Democrats will attack." Abortion hard-liners, which includes a very large fraction of Republican voters, will see allowing abortion well into the second trimester as legalizing baby murder. They want a (near) total ban, and nothing less. A recent Fox News poll found that 54% of voters oppose a 15-week ban, albeit for various reasons. The idea was tested on a much bigger scale in Virginia in 2023 when Republicans running for the state legislature ran on a 15-week limit as a "reasonable" compromise. This resulted in the Democrats capturing both chambers of the legislature, after having lost the state House in 2022.
  

These are just some of the questions surrounding abortion, but there will surely be more. (V)