Dem
51
GOP
49
If Donald Trump wins the White House and the Republicans capture Congress, there is a good chance Senate Republicans will abolish the filibuster and then implement Project 2025, which will roll back everything Joe Biden achieved and make Christian nationalism public policy. At the moment, the presidential race is a crapshoot. It could go either way. The Senate is also iffy for the Democrats, with several Democratic seats in danger. With West Virginia a new Lost Cause, they need to hold every single one of the others to even get to 50 seats (unless they score an upset in Texas or Florida).
In view of these dynamics, veteran election guru Charlie Cook thinks the Democrats' best shot at blocking a Republican trifecta is the House. He believes that at this point, the two most likely scenarios are: (1) a Republican trifecta or (2) Trump winning and both chambers of Congress flipping, but in opposite directions. Having a party gain seats in one chamber while losing them in the other is not unusual. It happened in 2020, for example. It has never happened that both chambers flipped control in opposite directions in the same election, but 2024 could break new ground.
While Democrats will fight like crazy to reelect Biden and hang onto the Senate by a thread, the House could be the Democrats' firewall. There are 17 Republicans in seats Biden won in 2020. A majority of these are in blue states, where Democrats are well organized, especially New York and California. If the Democrats can flip half of these, that will be enough to counter the map-making shenanigans in North Carolina, South Carolina and elsewhere and produce a tiny Democratic majority. Of course, there are also some Democrats in seats Trump won or who otherwise are in swing districts.
There is also another issue involving the House that could occur. Look at the map above. Imagine that Wisconsin flips, but not Arizona. Currently, Trump leads in Wisconsin 46%-45%. Then Biden would have 266 EVs. Now imagine that Biden wins Maine, except for ME-02. That adds three more EVs to 266, bringing him (and Trump) to 269. A tie. That forces a contingent election in the House, with each state getting one vote. At the moment, Republicans control 26 state delegations, Democrats control 22, and two are split (North Carolina and Minnesota). Most likely, Republicans will control a majority of state delegations on Jan. 3. Needless to say, the pressure on the lone House members (i.e., the states with three EVs in the map) to flip will be incredible. The better the Democrats can do in the House, the more states they get in a contingent election. (V)